Florgrade vs Portimonense Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Florgrade vs Portimonense preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Florgrade and Portimonense, the 1X2 probabilities show Florgrade at 36%, a draw at 38%, and Portimonense at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 with a 22% chance, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Both teams to score has a 31% probability, while Over 2.5 goals is at just 21%. Florgrade's expected goals stand at 0.88, while Portimonense is lower at 0.71. The recent form shows Florgrade with a W-D-L record, while Portimonense has a mixed W-L-L-L-D-W record. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.

Florgrade vs Portimonense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Florgrade	Draw	Portimonense
Model	36%	38%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	36%	38%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Florgrade and Portimonense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.88Florgrade

0.71Portimonense

Total expected goals: 1.59
Attack rating (Florgrade / Portimonense): 0.71 / 0.68
Defence rating (Florgrade / Portimonense): 0.69 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Florgrade vs Portimonense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.6% 13.2% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1 16.7% 14.0% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 7.9% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Florgrade goals. Columns: Portimonense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Florgrade vs Portimonense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Florgrade vs Portimonense

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Florgrade	36%	2.77
	Draw	38%	2.65
	Portimonense	26%	3.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.66
	Under 2.5	79%	1.27
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.22
	No	69%	1.45
Double chance	1X (Florgrade or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	62%	1.61
	X2 (draw or Portimonense)	64%	1.56
Handicap -1	Florgrade win by 2+	13%	7.62
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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