Amarante vs Portimonense preview
Amarante faces Portimonense in the Segunda Liga, with a 37% chance for Amarante to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 14% probability. However, the match could see different outcomes if Portimonense improves their recent form, as they have won only two of their last six matches.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 33%, while both teams to score is at 41%. Expected goals suggest Amarante will score 1.12 and Portimonense 0.90. With a confidence grade of C, the predictions reflect a blend of probabilities and market odds, indicating some uncertainty in the match outcome.
Amarante vs Portimonense: model vs market
| Source | Amarante | Draw | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 34% |
| Published | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | +3% | +3% | -6% |
- The market prices Amarante below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Amarante vs Portimonense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Amarante, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amarante | 2.58 | 2.57 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.01 | -0.07 |
| Portimonense | 2.71 | 2.72 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Amarante and Portimonense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Amarante / Portimonense)
- 1.01 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Amarante / Portimonense)
- 0.94 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Amarante vs Portimonense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Amarante goals. Columns: Portimonense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Amarante vs Portimonense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Amarante vs Portimonense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 37% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Portimonense | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Amarante or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Portimonense) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Amarante win by 2+ | 17% | 5.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Amarante and Portimonense recent form
Amarante
2W 2D 2L
Portimonense
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Amarante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Portimonense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Amarante at home only, Portimonense away only.
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