Amarante vs Portimonense: model vs market
| Source | Amarante | Draw | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 34% |
| Published | 36% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Amarante vs Portimonense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Amarante, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amarante | 2.58 | 2.57 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.00 | -0.08 |
| Portimonense | 2.71 | 2.71 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Amarante and Portimonense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Amarante / Portimonense)
- 1.01 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Amarante / Portimonense)
- 0.95 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Amarante vs Portimonense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Amarante goals. Columns: Portimonense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Amarante vs Portimonense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Amarante vs Portimonense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 36% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Portimonense | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Amarante or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Portimonense) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Amarante win by 2+ | 17% | 5.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Amarante and Portimonense recent form
Amarante
2W 2D 2L
Portimonense
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Amarante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Portimonense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Amarante at home only, Portimonense away only.
Expected lineups
Amarante lineup · 3-4-3
- 65 Diogo Figueiredo
- 4 João Filipe
- 3 Feliciano Mendes
- 5 Paulinho
- 8 Tokinho
- 88 Rúben Alves
- 28 Diogo Costa
- 78 Simão Silva
Bench: Rafael Flores, Rodrigo Guedes, A. Idache, Rodrigo Beirão, Ian Custódio, Diogo Fernandes, Nito Gomes
Portimonense lineup · 3-4-3
- 1 Dudu
- 4 Italo Cabelinho
- 3 Jarleysom Amurim
- 17 João Reis
- 21 Yanis da Rocha
- 15 Xavier
- 9 S. Yépié Yépié
- 7 Danio Djassi
- 11 Diogo Cabral
- 18 Tiago Ferreira
Bench: G. Tunguliyadi, João Casimiro, Thauan Lara, Wellington, Marlon Júnior, Felipe Favero, Jader, Welinton Júnior
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Penafiel v AVS — match page 2026-10-09
- Tondela v Torreense — match page 2026-10-10
- Leixoes vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Vizela vs Sporting CP B 2026-10-10
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves 2026-10-11
- Farense vs Feirense 2026-10-11
- União de Leiria v Academica — match page 2026-10-11
- Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Amarante, next: Academica vs Amarante: odds and pick
- Portimonense, next: Florgrade vs Portimonense: odds and pick