Tondela vs Torreense: model vs market
| Source | Tondela | Draw | Torreense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tondela vs Torreense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tondela, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 2.31 | 2.30 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Torreense | 3.01 | 3.02 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tondela and Torreense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Tondela / Torreense)
- 1.28 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Tondela / Torreense)
- 1.02 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tondela vs Torreense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tondela goals. Columns: Torreense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tondela vs Torreense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tondela vs Torreense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Torreense | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tondela or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Torreense) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tondela and Torreense recent form
Tondela
3W 0D 3L
Torreense
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tondela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Torreense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tondela at home only, Torreense away only.
Expected lineups
Tondela lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 28 Araujo Carlos
- 12 Zé Ricardo
- 6 Farru
- 4 Christian Marques
- 15 Carraça
- 97 Cícero
- 7 Cascavel
- 20 Hugo Félix
- 26 A. van der Heide
- 19 Tómané
Bench: Lucas Cañizares, Bebeto, João Afonso, Hélder Tavares, João Lima, Alves Richarllyson Carvalho, S. Sithole, Xabi Huarte, B. Almeida, Tiago Dias, R. da Silva
Torreense lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 31 Adriel
- 23 Javi Vázquez
- 5 M. Diadie
- 4 Volnei Feltes
- 22 David Bruno
- 8 Alejandro Alfaro
- 6 A. Oudrhiri
- 7 D. Jean
- 33 João Marques
- 29 L. Quintero
- 27 M. Abubakari
Bench: Lucas Paes, Stopira, Juan María Alcedo, Manu Pozo, M. Drammeh, K. Zoabi, Carlos Reina, Nuha Jatta, André Simões, Hugo Pérez, J. Mutombo, Joel Romero
Tondela vs Torreense head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Tondela 3 · draws 4 · Torreense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Tondela | 2-2 | Torreense | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-10-04 | Torreense | 0-2 | Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-03-15 | Torreense | 0-1 | Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-11-26 | Torreense | 1-1 | Tondela | Taça de Portugal |
| 2023-11-05 | Tondela | 1-2 | Torreense | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-03-04 | Tondela | 1-1 | Torreense | Segunda Liga |
| 2022-11-24 | Tondela | 1-1 | Torreense | Taça da Liga |
| 2022-09-11 | Torreense | 0-3 | Tondela | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Penafiel v AVS — match page 2026-10-09
- Amarante vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Leixoes vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Vizela vs Sporting CP B 2026-10-10
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves 2026-10-11
- Farense vs Feirense 2026-10-11
- União de Leiria v Academica — match page 2026-10-11
- Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Tondela, next: Tondela v Alverca analysis
- Torreense, next: Torreense vs Sunderland: odds and pick