Tondela vs Torreense preview
In the Segunda Liga match between Tondela and Torreense, the model gives Tondela a 40% chance to win, while Torreense has a 31% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Tondela, with a 9% probability. The data suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 58%.
Tondela's recent form shows three wins followed by three losses, while Torreense has two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. This inconsistency in Tondela's performance could lead to unexpected results, making the prediction less certain. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while the probabilities are informative, they are blended with market odds and should be viewed with caution.
Tondela vs Torreense: model vs market
| Source | Tondela | Draw | Torreense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | -2% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tondela below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tondela vs Torreense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tondela, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 2.31 | 2.30 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Torreense | 3.01 | 3.02 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tondela and Torreense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Tondela / Torreense)
- 1.28 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Tondela / Torreense)
- 1.02 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tondela vs Torreense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tondela goals. Columns: Torreense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tondela vs Torreense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tondela vs Torreense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Torreense | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tondela or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Torreense) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win by 2+ | 22% | 4.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tondela and Torreense recent form
Tondela
3W 0D 3L
Torreense
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tondela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Torreense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tondela at home only, Torreense away only.
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