Torreense vs Sunderland preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Torreense and Sunderland, the 1X2 probabilities show Sunderland at 58%, compared to Torreense at 21%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, indicating a strong chance for Sunderland to secure victory.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Torreense's last five matches resulting in 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Sunderland has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The expected goals are 1.58 for Torreense and 1.21 for Sunderland. The prediction for Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%, and both teams to score is at 57%. If Torreense can improve their attacking efficiency, it could challenge Sunderland's advantage.
Torreense vs Sunderland: model vs market
| Source | Torreense | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 14% | 19% | 68% |
| Published | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Edge | +31% | +8% | -39% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Torreense vs Sunderland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense | 6.90 | 6.95 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 5.03 | 5.03 | +0.00 |
| Sunderland | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torreense and Sunderland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Torreense / Sunderland)
- 1.01 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Torreense / Sunderland)
- 0.88 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torreense vs Sunderland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torreense goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torreense vs Sunderland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torreense vs Sunderland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 21% | 4.68 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Sunderland | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torreense or draw) | 42% | 2.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Sunderland) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sunderland win by 2+ | 12% | 8.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Torreense and Sunderland recent form
Torreense
2W 3D 1L
Sunderland
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lyon vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-15
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva 2026-10-15
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-10-15
- Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan — match page 2026-10-15
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-15
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Torreense, previous: Tondela – Torreense, 2026-10-10
- Sunderland, previous: Sunderland vs Brighton: odds and pick