Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad preview
Union St. Gilloise has an 87% chance to win against Real Sociedad, with a most likely scoreline of 3-0 at 9%. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 82%, suggesting a high-scoring match, while both teams to score stands at 54%. Union St. Gilloise's expected goals are 3.61 compared to Real Sociedad's 0.81, highlighting a significant offensive advantage.
However, Real Sociedad's recent form shows some promise with 4 wins in their last 6 matches. If they can improve their attacking efficiency, they might challenge the predictions. A lower-than-expected performance from Union St. Gilloise could also lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: model vs market
| Source | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Edge | +46% | -18% | -28% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.61 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Union St. Gilloise below the model: +45.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.29 | 2.29 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
| Real Sociedad | 2.92 | 2.92 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.42
- Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Real Sociedad)
- 1.80 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Real Sociedad)
- 0.71 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Real Sociedad | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win by 2+ | 73% | 1.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad recent form
Union St. Gilloise
6W 0D 0L
Real Sociedad
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Union St. Gilloise, previous: Union St. Gilloise – OH Leuven, 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad, previous: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction