Lyon vs Crystal Palace preview
In the UEFA Europa League match between Lyon and Crystal Palace, the 1X2 probabilities show Lyon at 53%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model predicts a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 68%.
Lyon's expected goals stand at 2.15, while Crystal Palace's are at 1.44. However, if Crystal Palace's recent form improves beyond their last matches, it could challenge Lyon's advantage. The confidence grade for this match is A, indicating strong backing for the predictions.
Why this pick: Lyon vs Crystal Palace
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace: model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | +9% | -3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.41.
- The market prices Lyon below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 2.18 | 2.18 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.62 | +0.00 |
| Crystal Palace | 3.05 | 3.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lyon and Crystal Palace expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.47
- Attack rating (Lyon / Crystal Palace)
- 1.25 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Lyon / Crystal Palace)
- 0.94 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lyon vs Crystal Palace
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Crystal Palace | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lyon or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Crystal Palace) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lyon and Crystal Palace recent form
Lyon
3W 2D 1L
Crystal Palace
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-10-15
- Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan — match page 2026-10-15
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-15
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Lyon, previous: Lens vs Lyon prediction
- Crystal Palace, previous: Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest, 2026-10-11