Lens vs Lyon preview
Lens faces Lyon with a model 1X2 probability of 42% for Lens winning, 34% for Lyon, and 24% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time. The high percentages for Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 71% suggest an attacking match.
Lens's recent form shows two wins and three losses, while Lyon has three wins and two draws in their last five matches. Historically, Lens has been strong against Lyon, winning four of the last seven encounters. However, if Lyon's recent form continues, they could challenge Lens effectively.
Why this pick: Lens vs Lyon
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lens 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lens vs Lyon: model vs market
| Source | Lens | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 21% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Edge | +10% | -4% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.63.
- The market prices Lens below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lens vs Lyon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lens, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 2.13 | 2.38 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.70 | -0.02 |
| Lyon | 3.20 | 2.70 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lens and Lyon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (Lens / Lyon)
- 1.55 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Lens / Lyon)
- 1.04 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lens vs Lyon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lens vs Lyon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lens vs Lyon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Lyon | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lens or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Lyon) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lens and Lyon recent form
Lens
2W 1D 3L
Lyon
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lens at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Lyon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Lens at home only, Lyon away only.
Lens vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Lens 4 · draws 2 · Lyon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Lyon | 0-4 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lyon | 2-2 | Lens | Coupe de France |
| 2025-08-16 | Lens | 0-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Lyon | 1-2 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Lens | 0-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Lyon | 0-3 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-02 | Lens | 3-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
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