Nice vs Strasbourg preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Nice and Strasbourg, the model gives Nice a 41% chance to win, while Strasbourg has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The data suggests that there is a 57% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Nice's recent form shows a mixed bag with one win in their last six matches, while Strasbourg has two wins in their last three. Historically, Nice has performed well against Strasbourg, winning four of their last seven encounters. However, if Strasbourg's recent form continues, it could challenge Nice's chances.
Why this pick: Nice vs Strasbourg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nice vs Strasbourg: model vs market
| Source | Nice | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nice vs Strasbourg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nice, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 2.22 | 2.25 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.55 | -0.01 |
| Strasbourg | 3.14 | 2.90 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nice and Strasbourg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Nice / Strasbourg)
- 0.89 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Nice / Strasbourg)
- 1.23 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nice vs Strasbourg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nice vs Strasbourg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nice vs Strasbourg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Strasbourg | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nice or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Strasbourg) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nice win by 2+ | 20% | 4.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nice and Strasbourg recent form
Nice
1W 2D 3L
Strasbourg
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
Strasbourg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Nice at home only, Strasbourg away only.
Nice vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Nice 4 · draws 2 · Strasbourg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Strasbourg | 0-2 | Nice | Coupe de France |
| 2026-04-04 | Strasbourg | 3-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Nice | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Strasbourg | 2-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Nice | 2-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Strasbourg | 1-3 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Nice | 2-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
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