Brest vs Angers Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Brest vs Angers preview

Brest faces Angers in Ligue 1, with a 49% chance for Brest to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals suggest a strong attacking performance from Brest at 2.13 compared to Angers' 1.32. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 64%.

However, recent form could influence the outcome. Brest has recorded two losses in their last three matches, while Angers has shown some resilience with two wins in their last six games. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results, making the match more unpredictable than the probabilities suggest.

Why this pick: Brest vs Angers

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brest 10, Angers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BrestAngers

1.70 xG per 90 1.43

1.63 npxG per 90 1.28

11.3 PPDA 17.4

4.4 Deep completions per 90 4.3

1.45 xPTS per 90 1.08

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Brest vs Angers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Brest	Draw	Angers
Model	54%	22%	25%
Market	48%	26%	26%
Published	49%	25%	25%
Edge	+6%	-5%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.32.
The market prices Brest below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Brest vs Angers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brest, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.94Now 1.96 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Brest	1.94	1.96	+0.02
Draw	3.75	3.55	-0.20
Angers	3.80	3.68	-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brest and Angers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13Brest

1.32Angers

Total expected goals: 3.45
Attack rating (Brest / Angers): 1.14 / 0.99
Defence rating (Brest / Angers): 1.08 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brest vs Angers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 4.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6% 1 6.9% 9.7% 6.2% 2.7% 1.2% 2 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.9% 6.4% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8% 4+ 3.9% 5.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7%

Rows: Brest goals. Columns: Angers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brest vs Angers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brest vs Angers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Brest	49%	2.03
	Draw	25%	3.94
	Angers	25%	3.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.54
	Under 2.5	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.76
Double chance	1X (Brest or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Angers)	51%	1.97
Handicap -1	Brest win by 2+	32%	3.15
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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