Rennes vs Auxerre Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Rennes vs Auxerre preview

Rennes faces Auxerre with a strong probability of 63% for a Rennes win in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, suggesting a competitive match. However, Auxerre's recent form shows two wins in their last three matches, which could challenge Rennes' expectations.

The data indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 67%. Rennes has an expected goals figure of 2.18, while Auxerre sits at 1.43. These numbers suggest a dynamic game, but if Auxerre's form holds, they could disrupt Rennes' plans.

Why this pick: Rennes vs Auxerre

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rennes 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RennesAuxerre

1.86 xG per 90 1.25

1.69 npxG per 90 1.17

10.4 PPDA 15.2

7.7 Deep completions per 90 3.6

1.16 xPTS per 90 0.95

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Rennes vs Auxerre: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rennes	Draw	Auxerre
Model	52%	22%	26%
Market	66%	19%	14%
Published	63%	20%	17%
Edge	-14%	+2%	+12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.43.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Rennes vs Auxerre odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.42Now 1.40 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Rennes	1.42	1.40	-0.02
Draw	5.08	4.85	-0.23
Auxerre	6.83	6.50	-0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rennes and Auxerre expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.18Rennes

1.43Auxerre

Total expected goals: 3.61
Attack rating (Rennes / Auxerre): 1.17 / 0.93
Defence rating (Rennes / Auxerre): 1.24 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rennes vs Auxerre score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 4.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7% 1 6.0% 9.1% 6.4% 3.0% 1.5% 2 6.5% 9.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.5% 6.4% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 4+ 3.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.8% 0.9%

Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rennes vs Auxerre goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rennes vs Auxerre

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rennes	63%	1.59
	Draw	20%	5.05
	Auxerre	17%	5.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.12
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	3.00
Double chance	1X (Rennes or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Auxerre)	37%	2.70
Handicap -1	Rennes win by 2+	31%	3.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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