Estac Troyes vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Estac Troyes vs Marseille preview

In the fixture between Estac Troyes and Marseille, the 1X2 probabilities show Marseille at 45%, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 6% chance. Estac Troyes has a strong expectation of 2.41 goals, while Marseille is at 1.66.

The match could see Over 2.5 goals, with a 75% likelihood, and both teams to score has a 73% chance. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Estac Troyes has three losses in their last five matches, while Marseille has lost four in a row before their recent win. This inconsistency might affect the expected performance on the day.

Why this pick: Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Estac Troyes 5, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Estac TroyesMarseille

1.24 xG per 90 1.98

1.09 npxG per 90 1.81

16.1 PPDA 10.6

7.2 Deep completions per 90 9.4

0.79 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Estac Troyes	Draw	Marseille
Model	52%	20%	28%
Market	25%	25%	51%
Published	31%	24%	45%
Edge	+27%	-4%	-23%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.93Now 1.85 -0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Estac Troyes	3.68	3.80	+0.12
Draw	3.81	3.80	-0.01
Marseille	1.93	1.85	-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estac Troyes and Marseille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.41Estac Troyes

1.66Marseille

Total expected goals: 4.07
Attack rating (Estac Troyes / Marseille): 1.01 / 1.24
Defence rating (Estac Troyes / Marseille): 1.08 / 1.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9% 1 4.2% 7.5% 6.1% 3.4% 2.0% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.0% 3.8% 2.3% 3 3.9% 6.4% 5.3% 2.9% 1.8% 4+ 3.8% 6.3% 5.2% 2.9% 1.7%

Rows: Estac Troyes goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 56%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Estac Troyes	31%	3.18
	Draw	24%	4.24
	Marseille	45%	2.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.32
	Under 2.5	25%	4.08
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.70
Double chance	1X (Estac Troyes or draw)	55%	1.82
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Marseille)	69%	1.46
Handicap -1	Marseille win by 2+	13%	7.50
	Push (exactly one goal)	14%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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