Lille vs Le Havre preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Lille and Le Havre, Lille has a strong 62% probability to win according to model 1X2 predictions. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Lille, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.08 for Lille and 1.24 for Le Havre.
However, Le Havre could disrupt this outcome. Their recent form shows one win in the last five matches, but they did manage to secure a victory recently. Both teams to score stands at 61%, indicating that while Lille is favored, Le Havre has a chance to find the net. The market suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 62%, adding another layer to the match dynamics.
Why this pick: Lille vs Le Havre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lille 10, Le Havre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lille vs Le Havre: model vs market
| Source | Lille | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Published | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Edge | -11% | +1% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lille vs Le Havre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lille, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.40 | 1.44 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.82 | 4.40 | -0.42 |
| Le Havre | 7.61 | 6.78 | -0.83 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lille and Le Havre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Lille / Le Havre)
- 1.07 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Lille / Le Havre)
- 1.02 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lille vs Le Havre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Le Havre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lille vs Le Havre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lille vs Le Havre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 62% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Le Havre | 16% | 6.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lille or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Havre) | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Lille and Le Havre recent form
Lille
3W 1D 2L
Le Havre
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Le Havre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Lille at home only, Le Havre away only.
Lille vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lille 4 · draws 1 · Le Havre 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Lille | 1-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Lille | 1-2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Le Havre | 0-3 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-17 | Lille | 3-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Le Havre | 0-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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