Monaco vs Toulouse preview
Monaco faces Toulouse in Ligue 1, with a 56% probability of Monaco winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Monaco's strong recent form of four wins in their last six matches. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 66%, indicating a good chance for a high-scoring game.
However, Toulouse's recent form includes a win and two draws in their last six matches, which could disrupt Monaco's expected dominance. With expected goals showing Monaco at 2.02 and Toulouse at 1.48, the match could be closer than the probabilities suggest. A draw or a Toulouse win could change the expected outcome.
Why this pick: Monaco vs Toulouse
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monaco 10, Toulouse 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monaco vs Toulouse: model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 30% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | -11% | 0% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monaco vs Toulouse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.83 | 1.60 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 3.91 | 4.25 | +0.34 |
| Toulouse | 4.18 | 5.00 | +0.82 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monaco and Toulouse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Monaco / Toulouse)
- 1.15 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Monaco / Toulouse)
- 1.03 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monaco vs Toulouse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monaco vs Toulouse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monaco vs Toulouse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Toulouse | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monaco or draw) | 78% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Toulouse) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Monaco and Toulouse recent form
Monaco
5W 1D 0L
Toulouse
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monaco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Toulouse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Monaco at home only, Toulouse away only.
Monaco vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monaco 3 · draws 2 · Toulouse 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toulouse | 2-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Monaco | 1-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-07 | Toulouse | 1-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Monaco | 2-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-18 | Monaco | 1-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-20 | Toulouse | 1-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
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