Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Celje and Omonia Nicosia, the 1X2 probabilities show Omonia Nicosia at 52% and Celje at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance according to our model. Celje's recent form is D-L-L-L-W-L, while Omonia Nicosia has a stronger run with W-W-D-W-D-W.

The expected goals indicate Celje at 0.75 and Omonia Nicosia at 1.42. While the probability for Over 2.5 goals stands at 37% and both teams to score at 41%, these figures suggest a low-scoring match could occur. If Celje manages to improve their form or Omonia Nicosia underperforms, the outcome may differ from the predictions.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Celje	Draw	Omonia Nicosia
Model	16%	28%	55%
Market	39%	27%	34%
Published	33%	28%	39%
Edge	-23%	+1%	+22%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.70.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Omonia Nicosia below the model: +21.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.96, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Omonia Nicosia, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.78Now 2.78 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Celje	2.42	2.42	+0.00
Draw	3.44	3.44	+0.00
Omonia Nicosia	2.78	2.78	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celje and Omonia Nicosia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.70Celje

1.51Omonia Nicosia

Total expected goals: 2.21
Attack rating (Celje / Omonia Nicosia): 0.79 / 1.35
Defence rating (Celje / Omonia Nicosia): 0.98 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.1% 15.4% 12.5% 6.3% 3.3% 1 6.5% 12.8% 8.8% 4.4% 2.3% 2 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Celje goals. Columns: Omonia Nicosia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Celje	33%	3.01
	Draw	28%	3.62
	Omonia Nicosia	39%	2.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.63
	Under 2.5	62%	1.61
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.47
	No	60%	1.68
Double chance	1X (Celje or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Omonia Nicosia)	67%	1.50
Handicap -1	Omonia Nicosia win by 2+	30%	3.37
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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