AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture, AZ Alkmaar has a 62% probability to win against Hapoel Beer Sheva, which stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. AZ Alkmaar's expected goals are 2.15, while Hapoel Beer Sheva's are significantly lower at 1.04.
Both teams to score has a 58% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%. However, AZ Alkmaar's recent form shows a mix of results with three wins and two losses, which could affect their performance. Hapoel Beer Sheva also has a strong recent record, with four wins in their last six matches. This could lead to an unexpected outcome.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: model vs market
| Source | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.29 | 1.30 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.67 | 5.50 | -0.17 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 9.50 | 9.00 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (AZ Alkmaar / Hapoel Beer Sheva)
- 1.41 / 1.10
- Defence rating (AZ Alkmaar / Hapoel Beer Sheva)
- 0.82 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AZ Alkmaar goals. Columns: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 12% | 8.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AZ Alkmaar or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva) | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win by 2+ | 40% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva recent form
AZ Alkmaar
4W 1D 1L
Hapoel Beer Sheva
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- AZ Alkmaar, previous: Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar analysis
- Hapoel Beer Sheva, previous: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction