Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market
| Source | Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.47.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.82 | 1.81 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 3.91 | -0.19 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 3.60 | 3.85 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Feyenoord / AZ Alkmaar)
- 1.60 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Feyenoord / AZ Alkmaar)
- 0.82 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Feyenoord goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 51% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Feyenoord or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar) | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar recent form
Feyenoord
4W 1D 1L
AZ Alkmaar
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Feyenoord at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
AZ Alkmaar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Feyenoord at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Feyenoord 0 · draws 2 · AZ Alkmaar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Feyenoord | 1-1 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 2025-09-21 | AZ Alkmaar | 3-3 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
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