Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Excelsior vs Groningen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Excelsior	Draw	Groningen
Model	52%	22%	26%
Market	37%	26%	37%
Published	41%	25%	34%
Edge	+14%	-3%	-11%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.49.
The market prices Excelsior below the model: +14.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Excelsior vs Groningen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Excelsior, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.26Now 2.51 +0.25

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Excelsior	2.26	2.51	+0.25
Draw	3.61	3.64	+0.03
Groningen	2.79	2.50	-0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Excelsior and Groningen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.14Excelsior

1.49Groningen

Total expected goals: 3.63
Attack rating (Excelsior / Groningen): 1.21 / 1.11
Defence rating (Excelsior / Groningen): 0.90 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Excelsior vs Groningen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1 4.8% 9.3% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 2 6.1% 9.0% 6.7% 3.4% 1.7% 3 4.3% 6.4% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2% 4+ 3.8% 5.6% 4.2% 2.1% 1.1%

Rows: Excelsior goals. Columns: Groningen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Excelsior vs Groningen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 49%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Excelsior vs Groningen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Excelsior	41%	2.46
	Draw	25%	4.03
	Groningen	34%	2.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.42
	Under 2.5	30%	3.36
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.25
Double chance	1X (Excelsior or draw)	66%	1.53
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Groningen)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Excelsior win by 2+	31%	3.19
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
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Excelsior and Groningen recent form

Excelsior 2W 2D 2L

Groningen 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Excelsior at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.

Groningen away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-1
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 2.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior at home only, Groningen away only.

Excelsior vs Groningen head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Excelsior 1 · draws 0 · Groningen 1.

50% 0% 50%

ExcelsiorDrawsGroningen

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-02	Groningen	2-3	Excelsior	Eredivisie
2025-12-05	Excelsior	0-2	Groningen	Eredivisie

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Prediction snapshot Excelsior to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Excelsior