PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen preview
PSV Eindhoven takes on Heerenveen, with a strong 73% probability for a home win in the 1X2 market. The expected goals suggest a likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 9% chance of that outcome. PSV Eindhoven's recent form shows five wins in their last six matches, while Heerenveen has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games.
The market indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 69%. However, the confidence grade is C, meaning there could be uncertainty in the match outcome. If Heerenveen improves their form or if PSV Eindhoven underperforms, the predicted results may not hold.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen: model vs market
| Source | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 76% | 13% | 11% |
| Published | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.22 | 1.23 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 6.47 | 6.95 | +0.48 |
| Heerenveen | 9.70 | 8.75 | -0.95 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.95
- Attack rating (PSV Eindhoven / Heerenveen)
- 1.72 / 0.97
- Defence rating (PSV Eindhoven / Heerenveen)
- 0.91 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PSV Eindhoven goals. Columns: Heerenveen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.79 | |
| Heerenveen | 12% | 8.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PSV Eindhoven or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Heerenveen) | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen recent form
PSV Eindhoven
4W 1D 1L
Heerenveen
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PSV Eindhoven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Heerenveen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven at home only, Heerenveen away only.
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 8 · draws 1 · Heerenveen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | PSV Eindhoven | 3-1 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2026-02-04 | PSV Eindhoven | 4-1 | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-12-06 | Heerenveen | 0-2 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2025-03-08 | PSV Eindhoven | 2-1 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2024-12-14 | Heerenveen | 1-0 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2024-04-25 | Heerenveen | 0-8 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2023-12-07 | PSV Eindhoven | 2-0 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2023-05-21 | PSV Eindhoven | 3-3 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2022-10-09 | Heerenveen | 0-1 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2022-02-20 | PSV Eindhoven | 3-1 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
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