Utrecht vs Willem II Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Utrecht vs Willem II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Utrecht	Draw	Willem II
Model	49%	22%	29%
Market	63%	21%	16%
Published	60%	21%	19%
Edge	-15%	+1%	+13%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.69.
Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Utrecht vs Willem II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.40Now 1.48 +0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Utrecht	1.40	1.48	+0.08
Draw	4.78	4.55	-0.23
Willem II	6.65	5.85	-0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Utrecht and Willem II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.19Utrecht

1.69Willem II

Total expected goals: 3.88
Attack rating (Utrecht / Willem II): 1.03 / 0.74
Defence rating (Utrecht / Willem II): 1.54 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Utrecht vs Willem II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1 3.8% 8.4% 6.5% 3.6% 2.3% 2 4.9% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.6% 6.1% 5.2% 2.9% 1.8% 4+ 3.3% 5.5% 4.7% 2.6% 1.6%

Rows: Utrecht goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Utrecht vs Willem II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Utrecht vs Willem II

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Utrecht	60%	1.67
	Draw	21%	4.78
	Willem II	19%	5.17
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.35
	Under 2.5	26%	3.90
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.73
Double chance	1X (Utrecht or draw)	81%	1.24
	12 (either side)	79%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Willem II)	40%	2.48
Handicap -1	Utrecht win by 2+	29%	3.40
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Utrecht and Willem II recent form

Utrecht 1W 2D 3L

Willem II 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Utrecht at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.67
Goals against / match: 4.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Willem II away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 3.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Utrecht at home only, Willem II away only.

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Prediction snapshot Utrecht to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Utrecht