Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market
| Source | Ajax | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85% | 9% | 6% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| Published | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Edge | +13% | -7% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.89 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ajax below the model: +13.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.48 | 1.29 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 5.68 | +1.18 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 5.58 | 8.25 | +2.67 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.97
- Attack rating (Ajax / NEC Nijmegen)
- 1.73 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Ajax / NEC Nijmegen)
- 0.93 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ajax goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 75% | 1.32 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.83 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 10% | 10.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ajax or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen) | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win by 2+ | 71% | 1.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen recent form
Ajax
4W 1D 1L
NEC Nijmegen
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ajax at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ajax at home only, NEC Nijmegen away only.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ajax 0 · draws 2 · NEC Nijmegen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Ajax | 1-1 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-12-20 | NEC Nijmegen | 2-2 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
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