Fortuna Sittard vs Twente: model vs market
| Source | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 21% | 56% |
| Market | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| Published | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Edge | +7% | +3% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Twente, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 6.45 | 6.28 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 4.95 | -0.05 |
| Twente | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortuna Sittard and Twente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (Fortuna Sittard / Twente)
- 0.96 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Fortuna Sittard / Twente)
- 1.14 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | 17% | 6.00 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Twente | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortuna Sittard or draw) | 36% | 2.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Twente) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win by 2+ | 36% | 2.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortuna Sittard and Twente recent form
Fortuna Sittard
4W 0D 2L
Twente
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortuna Sittard at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Twente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard at home only, Twente away only.
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 0 · draws 0 · Twente 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Fortuna Sittard | 1-2 | Twente | Eredivisie |
| 2025-09-26 | Twente | 3-2 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
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