Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ironi Tiberias	Draw	Hapoel Beer Sheva
Model	43%	27%	30%
Market	13%	18%	69%
Published	21%	21%	59%
Edge	+30%	+9%	-39%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Beer Sheva, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.36Now 1.34 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ironi Tiberias	6.80	7.00	+0.20
Draw	4.75	5.00	+0.25
Hapoel Beer Sheva	1.36	1.34	-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Ironi Tiberias

1.25Hapoel Beer Sheva

Total expected goals: 2.81
Attack rating (Ironi Tiberias / Hapoel Beer Sheva): 1.07 / 1.02
Defence rating (Ironi Tiberias / Hapoel Beer Sheva): 0.87 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 6.4% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.2% 12.9% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.3% 9.1% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Ironi Tiberias goals. Columns: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ironi Tiberias	21%	4.84
	Draw	21%	4.86
	Hapoel Beer Sheva	59%	1.70
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.88
	Under 2.5	47%	2.14
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.74
	No	43%	2.35
Double chance	1X (Ironi Tiberias or draw)	41%	2.43
	12 (either side)	79%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva)	79%	1.26
Handicap -1	Hapoel Beer Sheva win by 2+	13%	7.72
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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