Updated

Ligat Ha'al · Matchday 6

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

· Tiberias Municipal Stadium, Tiberias

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Hapoel Beer Sheva to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ironi TiberiasDrawHapoel Beer Sheva

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIroni TiberiasDrawHapoel Beer Sheva
Model43%27%30%
Market13%19%68%
Published21%21%59%
Edge+8%+2%-10%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Beer Sheva, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.36Now 1.34 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ironi Tiberias6.807.00+0.20
Draw4.754.90+0.15
Hapoel Beer Sheva1.361.34-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Ironi Tiberias
1.25Hapoel Beer Sheva
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (Ironi Tiberias / Hapoel Beer Sheva)
1.07 / 1.02
Defence rating (Ironi Tiberias / Hapoel Beer Sheva)
0.87 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 6.4% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.2% 12.9% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.3% 9.1% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Ironi Tiberias goals. Columns: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ironi Tiberias21%4.85
Draw21%4.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva59%1.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (Ironi Tiberias or draw)41%2.41
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva)79%1.26
Handicap -1Hapoel Beer Sheva win by 2+13%7.72
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Beer Sheva recent form

Ironi Tiberias 3W 1D 2L
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ironi Tiberias at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Hapoel Beer Sheva away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ironi Tiberias at home only, Hapoel Beer Sheva away only.

Expected lineups

Ironi Tiberias lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 22 I. Sharon
  2. 47 D. Golani
  3. 13 Z. Morgan
  4. 37 O. Bačo
  5. 17 R. Unger
  6. 14 G. Sanker
  7. 8 A. Cohen
  8. 3 D. Keltjens
  9. 18 E. Shamir
  10. 9 A. Miranyan

Bench: G. Amos, N. Chen, S. Farhud, B. Cohen, G. Ma'atuk, Y. Swisa, M. Badjie, A. Yehuda, N. Gbamblé

Hapoel Beer Sheva lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 O. Marciano
  2. 5 Pedro Amador
  3. 4 M. Vítor
  4. 44 D. Diop
  5. 2 G. Mizrahi
  6. 8 M. Kna'an
  7. 25 Lucas Ventura
  8. 17 A. Forson
  9. 70 João Victor
  10. 66 I. Zlatanović
  11. 20 J. East

Bench: M. Baltaxa, E. Peretz, Z. Ahmed, A. Ganah, I. Rotman, I. Nachmias, N. Yehoshua, M. Wolff, M. Abu Rumi

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Ironi Tiberias 2 · draws 0 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 4.

Ironi TiberiasDrawsHapoel Beer Sheva
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-20Ironi Tiberias3-0Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
2025-08-30Hapoel Beer Sheva7-0Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
2025-02-15Hapoel Beer Sheva4-0Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
2024-11-09Ironi Tiberias0-2Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
2024-08-18Hapoel Beer Sheva2-3Ironi TiberiasToto Cup Ligat Al
2024-02-28Hapoel Beer Sheva1-0Ironi TiberiasState Cup

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match