Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias preview
Hapoel Tel Aviv faces Ironi Tiberias with a 70% probability of winning compared to Tiberias' 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time in our model. Hapoel Tel Aviv's expected goals stand at 1.69, while Ironi Tiberias has a lower expected goals figure of 1.05.
Both teams to score has a 54% chance, suggesting that Tiberias could find the net. However, Hapoel Tel Aviv's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Tiberias has struggled with 4 losses in their last 6 games. This contrast in form may influence the outcome.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Draw | Ironi Tiberias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | -25% | +11% | +14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Tel Aviv, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1.21 | 1.20 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 |
| Ironi Tiberias | 10.50 | 11.00 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ironi Tiberias expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Hapoel Tel Aviv / Ironi Tiberias)
- 1.16 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Hapoel Tel Aviv / Ironi Tiberias)
- 0.76 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Tel Aviv goals. Columns: Ironi Tiberias goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Ironi Tiberias | 12% | 8.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Ironi Tiberias) | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ironi Tiberias recent form
Hapoel Tel Aviv
4W 1D 1L
Ironi Tiberias
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Tel Aviv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Ironi Tiberias away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv at home only, Ironi Tiberias away only.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2 · draws 0 · Ironi Tiberias 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Ironi Tiberias | 0-2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-11-01 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2-0 | Ironi Tiberias | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Ramat Gan — match page 2026-10-17
- Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Haifa 2026-10-17
- Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Tel Aviv, previous: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: odds and pick
- Ironi Tiberias, previous: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction