Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon preview
Hapoel Beer Sheva faces Hapoel Katamon with a 49% chance of winning compared to Katamon's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the model's expected goals of 1.74 for Beer Sheva and 1.21 for Katamon. With 57% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, there are indicators for a potentially high-scoring match.
However, Hapoel Beer Sheva's recent form shows a mix of results, with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Hapoel Katamon has struggled, winning only 1 of their last 6. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Draw | Hapoel Katamon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Katamon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Hapoel Beer Sheva / Hapoel Katamon)
- 1.04 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Hapoel Beer Sheva / Hapoel Katamon)
- 0.85 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Columns: Hapoel Katamon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Hapoel Katamon | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Hapoel Katamon) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Katamon recent form
Hapoel Beer Sheva
3W 2D 1L
Hapoel Katamon
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Beer Sheva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Hapoel Katamon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva at home only, Hapoel Katamon away only.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2 · draws 0 · Hapoel Katamon 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4-1 | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-09-14 | Hapoel Katamon | 1-5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias — match page 2026-10-17
- Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Ramat Gan — match page 2026-10-17
- Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Haifa 2026-10-17
- Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Beer Sheva, previous: AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva analysis
- Hapoel Beer Sheva, next: Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
- Hapoel Katamon, previous: Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa prediction