Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hapoel Katamon	Draw	Maccabi Haifa
Model	31%	23%	46%
Market	—	—	—
Published	31%	23%	46%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.65.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hapoel Katamon and Maccabi Haifa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Hapoel Katamon

2.05Maccabi Haifa

Total expected goals: 3.70
Attack rating (Hapoel Katamon / Maccabi Haifa): 1.01 / 1.38
Defence rating (Hapoel Katamon / Maccabi Haifa): 1.06 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.2% 5.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1 3.2% 9.2% 8.6% 5.8% 4.8% 2 3.4% 6.9% 7.1% 4.8% 4.0% 3 1.9% 3.8% 3.9% 2.7% 2.2% 4+ 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3%

Rows: Hapoel Katamon goals. Columns: Maccabi Haifa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 71%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hapoel Katamon	31%	3.25
	Draw	23%	4.37
	Maccabi Haifa	46%	2.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.40
	Under 2.5	28%	3.51
Both teams to score	Yes	71%	1.40
	No	29%	3.48
Double chance	1X (Hapoel Katamon or draw)	54%	1.87
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Maccabi Haifa)	69%	1.44
Handicap -1	Maccabi Haifa win by 2+	27%	3.68
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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