Updated

Ligat Ha'al · Matchday 6

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa

· Taddi Malcha, Jerusalem

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Maccabi Haifa to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hapoel KatamonDrawMaccabi Haifa

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHapoel KatamonDrawMaccabi Haifa
Model30%23%47%
Market19%23%58%
Published22%23%55%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.64.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Maccabi Haifa, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.57Now 1.59 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hapoel Katamon4.754.75+0.00
Draw4.004.00+0.00
Maccabi Haifa1.571.59+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hapoel Katamon and Maccabi Haifa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Hapoel Katamon
2.07Maccabi Haifa
Total expected goals
3.72
Attack rating (Hapoel Katamon / Maccabi Haifa)
1.02 / 1.38
Defence rating (Hapoel Katamon / Maccabi Haifa)
1.06 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.2% 5.2% 3.6% 3.0% 1 3.2% 9.1% 8.6% 5.9% 5.0% 2 3.3% 6.8% 7.1% 4.9% 4.1% 3 1.8% 3.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.2% 4+ 1.1% 2.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3%

Rows: Hapoel Katamon goals. Columns: Maccabi Haifa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hapoel Katamon22%4.54
Draw23%4.37
Maccabi Haifa55%1.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.54
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.49
Double chance1X (Hapoel Katamon or draw)45%2.23
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Maccabi Haifa)78%1.28
Handicap -1Maccabi Haifa win by 2+28%3.59
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hapoel Katamon and Maccabi Haifa recent form

Hapoel Katamon 2W 1D 3L
Maccabi Haifa 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hapoel Katamon at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Maccabi Haifa away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon at home only, Maccabi Haifa away only.

Expected lineups

Hapoel Katamon lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 55 N. Zamir
  2. 12 L. Mizrachi
  3. 22 T. Haimovich
  4. 3 N. Malmud
  5. 16 O. Agvadish
  6. 70 S. Zuberu
  7. 8 I. Madmon
  8. 91 C. Tiéhi
  9. 19 N. Vrasana
  10. 9 E. Chilufya
  11. 25 A. Idoko

Bench: B. Gordin Anbary, O. Almagor, V. Damaşcan, Y. Distalfeld, O. Abuhav, O. Nadir, I. Cohen, I. Daphah

Maccabi Haifa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 55 O. Glazer
  2. 16 K. Saief
  3. 35 N. Sztejfman
  4. 21 N. Lonwijk
  5. 25 J. Bataille
  6. 4 A. Muhammad
  7. 19 E. Azoulay
  8. 11 K. Gorré
  9. 10 Bruninho
  10. 30 Pedro Brazão
  11. 9 A. Novaković

Bench: Y. Mordechai, Y. Levi, G. Melamed, S. Kani, Iyad Khalaili, N. Ratner, Pedrão, Tsunami

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hapoel Katamon 2 · draws 4 · Maccabi Haifa 4.

Hapoel KatamonDrawsMaccabi Haifa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-17Maccabi Haifa0-1Hapoel KatamonToto Cup Ligat Al
2026-02-07Hapoel Katamon1-1Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
2025-11-01Maccabi Haifa2-2Hapoel KatamonLigat Ha'al
2025-02-17Maccabi Haifa3-3Hapoel KatamonLigat Ha'al
2024-11-08Hapoel Katamon0-0Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
2024-01-07Maccabi Haifa2-1Hapoel KatamonLigat Ha'al
2023-09-03Hapoel Katamon1-2Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
2023-05-20Maccabi Haifa5-0Hapoel KatamonLigat Ha'al
2023-04-15Hapoel Katamon2-1Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
2023-01-15Maccabi Haifa2-1Hapoel KatamonLigat Ha'al

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match