Updated

Ligat Ha'al · Matchday 6

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

· Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Hapoel Haifa to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hapoel HaifaDrawMaccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHapoel HaifaDrawMaccabi Petah Tikva
Model51%25%24%
Market46%26%28%
Published47%26%27%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.20.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Haifa, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.03Now 2.00 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hapoel Haifa2.032.00-0.03
Draw3.603.45-0.15
Maccabi Petah Tikva3.163.25+0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hapoel Haifa and Maccabi Petah Tikva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Hapoel Haifa
1.20Maccabi Petah Tikva
Total expected goals
3.03
Attack rating (Hapoel Haifa / Maccabi Petah Tikva)
0.90 / 1.03
Defence rating (Hapoel Haifa / Maccabi Petah Tikva)
0.83 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 4.7% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 1 7.8% 11.6% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 2 8.1% 9.7% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.0% 6.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 3.5% 4.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Hapoel Haifa goals. Columns: Maccabi Petah Tikva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hapoel Haifa47%2.13
Draw26%3.84
Maccabi Petah Tikva27%3.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.41
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.48
Double chance1X (Hapoel Haifa or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva)53%1.89
Handicap -1Hapoel Haifa win by 2+30%3.39
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hapoel Haifa and Maccabi Petah Tikva recent form

Hapoel Haifa 2W 3D 1L
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hapoel Haifa at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Maccabi Petah Tikva away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Haifa at home only, Maccabi Petah Tikva away only.

Expected lineups

Hapoel Haifa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Y. Gerafi
  2. 77 A. Mendy
  3. 5 I. Kričak
  4. 13 D. Župarić
  5. 2 N. Cohen
  6. 8 Cheick Keita
  7. 55 N. Sabag
  8. 7 L. Rotman
  9. 10 S. Elias
  10. 17 A. Turgeman

Bench: T. Arbel, D. Malul, I. S. Fahima, W. Habiballa, Itay Zafrani, S. Elkayam, A. Haman, M. Ambar, G. Diba

Maccabi Petah Tikva lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 39 M. Erlich
  2. 17 A. Salem
  3. 18 E. Tibi
  4. 99 Eyal Inbrum
  5. 6 E. Yao
  6. 26 G. Deznet
  7. 53 L. Hazan
  8. 9 S. Owusu
  9. 24 L. Kasa
  10. 77 J. Cortés
  11. 97 M. Rakonjac

Bench: D. Hevron, K. Spence, Dan Lee-Yam, A. Lugassy, I. Baruch, I. Cohen, Y. Koren, O. Dadya

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hapoel Haifa 2 · draws 5 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 3.

Hapoel HaifaDrawsMaccabi Petah Tikva
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-04Hapoel Haifa5-1Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
2024-09-21Maccabi Petah Tikva0-0Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
2024-03-05Hapoel Haifa0-3Maccabi Petah TikvaState Cup
2024-01-08Maccabi Petah Tikva0-3Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
2023-09-02Hapoel Haifa2-2Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
2023-07-11Hapoel Haifa1-1Maccabi Petah TikvaFriendlies Clubs
2022-04-02Maccabi Petah Tikva0-0Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
2022-01-15Hapoel Haifa2-2Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
2021-10-02Maccabi Petah Tikva2-0Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
2021-01-26Hapoel Haifa1-2Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match