Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hapoel Haifa	Draw	Maccabi Petah Tikva
Model	51%	25%	24%
Market	47%	26%	26%
Published	48%	26%	26%
Edge	+4%	-1%	-3%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.20.
The market prices Hapoel Haifa below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Haifa, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.03Now 1.94 -0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Hapoel Haifa	2.03	1.94	-0.09
Draw	3.60	3.48	-0.12
Maccabi Petah Tikva	3.16	3.50	+0.34

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hapoel Haifa and Maccabi Petah Tikva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Hapoel Haifa

1.20Maccabi Petah Tikva

Total expected goals: 3.03
Attack rating (Hapoel Haifa / Maccabi Petah Tikva): 0.90 / 1.03
Defence rating (Hapoel Haifa / Maccabi Petah Tikva): 0.83 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 4.7% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 1 7.8% 11.6% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 2 8.1% 9.7% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.0% 6.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 3.5% 4.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Hapoel Haifa goals. Columns: Maccabi Petah Tikva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hapoel Haifa	48%	2.07
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Maccabi Petah Tikva	26%	3.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.71
	Under 2.5	42%	2.41
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.48
Double chance	1X (Hapoel Haifa or draw)	74%	1.34
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva)	52%	1.94
Handicap -1	Hapoel Haifa win by 2+	30%	3.39
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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