Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Jerusalem: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Ramat Gan | Draw | Beitar Jerusalem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Market | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 57% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Jerusalem odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beitar Jerusalem, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5.36 | 5.25 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.45 | -0.05 |
| Beitar Jerusalem | 1.47 | 1.48 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Beitar Jerusalem expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Hapoel Ramat Gan / Beitar Jerusalem)
- 0.76 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Hapoel Ramat Gan / Beitar Jerusalem)
- 1.08 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Jerusalem score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Ramat Gan goals. Columns: Beitar Jerusalem goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Jerusalem goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Jerusalem
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 21% | 4.85 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Beitar Jerusalem | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw) | 43% | 2.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Beitar Jerusalem) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beitar Jerusalem win by 2+ | 20% | 4.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hapoel Ramat Gan and Beitar Jerusalem recent form
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1W 0D 4L
Beitar Jerusalem
4W 0D 2L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Ramat Gan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beitar Jerusalem away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Ramat Gan at home only, Beitar Jerusalem away only.
Expected lineups
Hapoel Ramat Gan lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 55 Amit Raif
- 33 F. Ibrahim
- 4 Márcio Silva
- 5 Jota Gonçalves
- 66 S. Mijailović
- 21 I. Oli
- 6 G. Naor
- 11 D. Asanka
- 7 M. Plakushchenko
- 28 M. Hozez
- 99 Luan Campos
Bench: D. Tischler, M. Noubissi, M. Semel, A. Zur, O. Yitzhak, C. Boniface, A. Yanko, T. Glazer
Beitar Jerusalem lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 55 Miguel Silva
- 11 T. Muzi
- 5 G. Cohen
- 44 L. Gadrani
- 2 N. Antwi
- 40 B. Enow
- 7 Y. Shua
- 30 T. Yosefi
- 77 O. Atzili
- 19 S. Weissman
Bench: Z. Shimol, J. Kalu, A. Yona, E. Ansah, R. Elimelech, Y. Ozer, O. N. Azo, L. Deri, D. Worko
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Jerusalem head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Hapoel Ramat Gan 0 · draws 1 · Beitar Jerusalem 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 3-3 | Beitar Jerusalem | Toto Cup Ligat Al |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer Sheva — match page 2026-10-10
- Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi Netanya — match page 2026-10-10
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 2026-10-10
- Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei Sakhnin — match page 2026-10-10
- Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Haifa 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Ramat Gan, next: Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Ramat Gan: odds and pick
- Beitar Jerusalem, next: Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Tel Aviv analysis