Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hapoel Petah Tikva	Draw	Maccabi Netanya
Model	17%	26%	57%
Market	24%	24%	51%
Published	22%	25%	53%
Edge	-7%	+2%	+6%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.83.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Maccabi Netanya below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Maccabi Netanya, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.67Now 1.80 +0.14

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Hapoel Petah Tikva	4.29	3.80	-0.49
Draw	3.92	3.78	-0.14
Maccabi Netanya	1.67	1.80	+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hapoel Petah Tikva and Maccabi Netanya expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.69Maccabi Netanya

Total expected goals: 2.52
Attack rating (Hapoel Petah Tikva / Maccabi Netanya): 0.54 / 1.03
Defence rating (Hapoel Petah Tikva / Maccabi Netanya): 1.17 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 12.5% 11.5% 6.5% 4.0% 1 5.5% 12.4% 9.5% 5.4% 3.3% 2 2.8% 4.7% 4.0% 2.2% 1.4% 3 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Hapoel Petah Tikva goals. Columns: Maccabi Netanya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hapoel Petah Tikva	22%	4.45
	Draw	25%	4.02
	Maccabi Netanya	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.16
	Under 2.5	54%	1.86
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.12
	No	53%	1.89
Double chance	1X (Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Maccabi Netanya)	78%	1.29
Handicap -1	Maccabi Netanya win by 2+	32%	3.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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