Updated

Ligat Ha'al · Matchday 6

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin

· Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Maccabi Tel Aviv to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Maccabi Tel AvivDrawBnei Sakhnin

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMaccabi Tel AvivDrawBnei Sakhnin
Model78%15%6%
Market82%13%5%
Published81%13%6%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 0.61.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Maccabi Tel Aviv, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.12Now 1.12 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Maccabi Tel Aviv1.121.12+0.00
Draw7.007.25+0.25
Bnei Sakhnin13.0017.00+4.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Maccabi Tel Aviv and Bnei Sakhnin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.52Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.61Bnei Sakhnin
Total expected goals
3.13
Attack rating (Maccabi Tel Aviv / Bnei Sakhnin)
1.57 / 0.48
Defence rating (Maccabi Tel Aviv / Bnei Sakhnin)
0.91 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1 10.4% 7.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2 13.9% 8.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 3 11.7% 7.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 13.4% 8.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Maccabi Tel Aviv goals. Columns: Bnei Sakhnin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Maccabi Tel Aviv81%1.23
Draw13%7.49
Bnei Sakhnin6%17.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.35
No58%1.74
Double chance1X (Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw)94%1.06
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or Bnei Sakhnin)19%5.28
Handicap -1Maccabi Tel Aviv win by 2+57%1.76
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Maccabi Tel Aviv and Bnei Sakhnin recent form

Maccabi Tel Aviv 5W 1D 0L
Bnei Sakhnin 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bnei Sakhnin away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv at home only, Bnei Sakhnin away only.

Expected lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 O. Melika
  2. 22 N. Ben Harush
  3. 13 R. Shlomo
  4. 5 M. Camara
  5. 2 J. Tavernier
  6. 28 I. Sissokho
  7. 11 S. Yehezkel
  8. 16 G. Kanichowsky
  9. 42 Dor Peretz
  10. 77 O. Davida
  11. 9 E. Sokler

Bench: T. Asante, D. Glazer, E. Madmon, Hélio Varela, I. Noy, H. Layous, I. Shahar, I. Ben Hamo, R. Mishpati

Bnei Sakhnin lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 R. Bălbărău
  2. 92 Saná Gomes
  3. 4 O. Dahan
  4. 5 I. Abu Abaid
  5. 2 M. Gantus
  6. 29 A. Salman
  7. 13 L. Owusu
  8. 6 A. Taha
  9. 8 M. Vorobjovas
  10. 10 M. Anim Cudjoe
  11. 7 I. Shviro

Bench: D. Paraschiv, J. Bushnaq, L. Halaf, M. Ganame, M. Abu Riya, M. Abu Nil, B. Khuri, I. Hagag, A. Sefer

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Maccabi Tel Aviv 7 · draws 3 · Bnei Sakhnin 0.

Maccabi Tel AvivDrawsBnei Sakhnin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-10Maccabi Tel Aviv1-0Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
2025-09-28Bnei Sakhnin0-0Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2025-02-16Maccabi Tel Aviv3-1Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
2024-11-10Bnei Sakhnin0-4Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2024-08-18Maccabi Tel Aviv2-1Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al
2024-05-06Bnei Sakhnin1-1Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2024-03-30Maccabi Tel Aviv2-0Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
2024-02-10Maccabi Tel Aviv1-1Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
2023-12-10Bnei Sakhnin2-3Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2023-08-20Bnei Sakhnin1-5Maccabi Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match