Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Draw	Bnei Sakhnin
Model	78%	15%	6%
Market	80%	13%	7%
Published	80%	13%	7%
Edge	-2%	+3%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.61.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Maccabi Tel Aviv, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.12Now 1.12 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Maccabi Tel Aviv	1.12	1.12	+0.00
Draw	7.00	7.00	+0.00
Bnei Sakhnin	13.00	13.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Maccabi Tel Aviv and Bnei Sakhnin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.53Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.61Bnei Sakhnin

Total expected goals: 3.13
Attack rating (Maccabi Tel Aviv / Bnei Sakhnin): 1.57 / 0.48
Defence rating (Maccabi Tel Aviv / Bnei Sakhnin): 0.91 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1 10.3% 7.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2 13.9% 8.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 3 11.7% 7.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 13.6% 8.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Maccabi Tel Aviv goals. Columns: Bnei Sakhnin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Maccabi Tel Aviv	80%	1.25
	Draw	13%	7.42
	Bnei Sakhnin	7%	14.88
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.65
	Under 2.5	39%	2.54
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.35
	No	58%	1.74
Double chance	1X (Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw)	93%	1.07
	12 (either side)	87%	1.16
	X2 (draw or Bnei Sakhnin)	20%	4.95
Handicap -1	Maccabi Tel Aviv win by 2+	57%	1.75
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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