Updated

Ligat Ha'al · Matchday 6

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

· Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

Full time1 – 3

Alin prediction was Hapoel Tel Aviv to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ironi Kiryat ShmonaDrawHapoel Tel Aviv

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIroni Kiryat ShmonaDrawHapoel Tel Aviv
Model24%27%49%
Market15%22%63%
Published17%23%60%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Tel Aviv, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.60Now 1.45 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ironi Kiryat Shmona5.006.00+1.00
Draw3.904.20+0.30
Hapoel Tel Aviv1.601.45-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Tel Aviv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.67Hapoel Tel Aviv
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Ironi Kiryat Shmona / Hapoel Tel Aviv)
0.93 / 1.07
Defence rating (Ironi Kiryat Shmona / Hapoel Tel Aviv)
1.11 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 9.4% 8.7% 4.9% 2.9% 1 5.8% 12.7% 9.6% 5.3% 3.2% 2 3.8% 6.3% 5.3% 2.9% 1.8% 3 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Ironi Kiryat Shmona goals. Columns: Hapoel Tel Aviv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ironi Kiryat Shmona17%5.74
Draw23%4.35
Hapoel Tel Aviv60%1.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw)40%2.48
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv)83%1.21
Handicap -1Hapoel Tel Aviv win by 2+27%3.69
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Tel Aviv recent form

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1W 0D 5L
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Hapoel Tel Aviv away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home only, Hapoel Tel Aviv away only.

Expected lineups

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 19 Daniel
  2. 17 I. Shoolmayster
  3. 32 S. Ben-David
  4. 26 N. Ljubisavljević
  5. 20 O. Darwish
  6. 8 Talles Costa
  7. 63 Alexandre Sola
  8. 10 A. Shirdatzki
  9. 21 R. Abdullazadə
  10. 7 A. Sagna
  11. 9 A. Pop

Bench: Nikola Djurkovic, S. Sabah, J. Al Halabi, M. Simantov, N. Markovitch, I. Vaier, N. Gabay, S. Edri, B. Shaheen

Hapoel Tel Aviv lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 A. Tzur
  2. 32 Y. Leliendal
  3. 4 Chico
  4. 5 F. Mayembo
  5. 97 M. Coco
  6. 14 E. Kancepolsky
  7. 98 Falcão
  8. 51 O. Altman
  9. 15 R. Alkokin
  10. 35 D. Owusu
  11. 9 E. Boateng

Bench: Dor Benyamini, R. Korine, S. Torial, D. Leidner, T. Archel, S. Piven, A. Lemkin, M. Buskila, D. Dappa

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1 · draws 3 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 6.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaDrawsHapoel Tel Aviv
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-16Ironi Kiryat Shmona1-2Hapoel Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al
2025-12-13Ironi Kiryat Shmona2-2Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2025-08-23Hapoel Tel Aviv2-1Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
2023-05-06Hapoel Tel Aviv2-2Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
2023-02-18Ironi Kiryat Shmona0-1Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2022-10-30Hapoel Tel Aviv2-1Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
2021-12-25Hapoel Tel Aviv2-0Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
2021-09-11Ironi Kiryat Shmona0-2Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
2021-01-31Hapoel Tel Aviv1-1Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
2020-11-24Ironi Kiryat Shmona1-0Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match