Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	Draw	Hapoel Tel Aviv
Model	24%	27%	49%
Market	15%	22%	62%
Published	18%	23%	59%
Edge	+9%	+4%	-13%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.10.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Tel Aviv, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.60Now 1.48 -0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5.00	6.00	+1.00
Draw	3.90	4.15	+0.25
Hapoel Tel Aviv	1.60	1.48	-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Tel Aviv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.66Hapoel Tel Aviv

Total expected goals: 2.76
Attack rating (Ironi Kiryat Shmona / Hapoel Tel Aviv): 0.93 / 1.07
Defence rating (Ironi Kiryat Shmona / Hapoel Tel Aviv): 1.11 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 9.4% 8.7% 4.8% 2.9% 1 5.8% 12.7% 9.6% 5.3% 3.2% 2 3.8% 6.3% 5.3% 2.9% 1.8% 3 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Ironi Kiryat Shmona goals. Columns: Hapoel Tel Aviv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	18%	5.70
	Draw	23%	4.28
	Hapoel Tel Aviv	59%	1.69
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.92
	Under 2.5	48%	2.09
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.81
	No	45%	2.23
Double chance	1X (Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw)	41%	2.45
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv)	82%	1.21
Handicap -1	Hapoel Tel Aviv win by 2+	27%	3.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer