Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv preview
In the Ligat Ha'al fixture between Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv, the 1X2 probabilities show Maccabi Tel Aviv at 53%, compared to Beitar Jerusalem's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance, indicating a potential win for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. However, Beitar Jerusalem has a strong recent record against Maccabi Tel Aviv, winning 3 of their last 4 encounters, which could challenge the expected outcome.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: model vs market
| Source | Beitar Jerusalem | Draw | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.45.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Beitar Jerusalem / Maccabi Tel Aviv)
- 1.10 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Beitar Jerusalem / Maccabi Tel Aviv)
- 0.91 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Beitar Jerusalem goals. Columns: Maccabi Tel Aviv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beitar Jerusalem | 30% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Beitar Jerusalem or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv recent form
Beitar Jerusalem
4W 0D 2L
Maccabi Tel Aviv
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Beitar Jerusalem at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Maccabi Tel Aviv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem at home only, Maccabi Tel Aviv away only.
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Beitar Jerusalem 3 · draws 1 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1-2 | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-05-02 | Beitar Jerusalem | 4-2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-02-16 | Beitar Jerusalem | 0-0 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-11-09 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2-6 | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias — match page 2026-10-17
- Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Ramat Gan — match page 2026-10-17
- Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Haifa 2026-10-17
- Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Katamon — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Beitar Jerusalem, previous: Hapoel Ramat Gan v Beitar Jerusalem analysis
- Maccabi Tel Aviv, previous: Maccabi Tel Aviv v Bnei Sakhnin analysis