Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Sparta Praha and Lillestrom, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong favor for Sparta Praha at 62%, while Lillestrom sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring.

Sparta Praha has an expected goals figure of 2.36, compared to Lillestrom's 1.22, indicating a potential for Over 2.5 goals at 69%. However, Lillestrom's recent form includes three wins in their last four matches, which could challenge Sparta Praha's dominance. Both teams to score stands at 65%, suggesting that Lillestrom may find the net despite the odds.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sparta Praha	Draw	Lillestrom
Model	62%	20%	18%
Market	69%	19%	12%
Published	67%	19%	14%
Edge	-7%	+2%	+5%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.22.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sparta Praha, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.35Now 1.35 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sparta Praha	1.35	1.35	+0.00
Draw	5.05	5.05	+0.00
Lillestrom	7.66	7.66	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sparta Praha and Lillestrom expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.36Sparta Praha

1.22Lillestrom

Total expected goals: 3.57
Attack rating (Sparta Praha / Lillestrom): 1.42 / 1.20
Defence rating (Sparta Praha / Lillestrom): 0.89 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 2.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1 5.8% 8.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 2 7.8% 9.5% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 6.1% 7.4% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 6.3% 7.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7%

Rows: Sparta Praha goals. Columns: Lillestrom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 69%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sparta Praha	67%	1.48
	Draw	19%	5.27
	Lillestrom	14%	7.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69%	1.44
	Under 2.5	31%	3.25
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.55
	No	35%	2.82
Double chance	1X (Sparta Praha or draw)	86%	1.16
	12 (either side)	81%	1.23
	X2 (draw or Lillestrom)	33%	3.07
Handicap -1	Sparta Praha win by 2+	41%	2.45
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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