Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 23

Lillestrom vs Molde

· Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom· Referee Espen Eskas

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Molde to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LillestromDrawMolde

Lillestrom vs Molde: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLillestromDrawMolde
Model27%21%52%
Market37%24%39%
Published34%23%42%
Edge-2%-1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.72.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Molde below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lillestrom vs Molde odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Molde, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.10Now 2.41 +0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lillestrom2.932.52-0.40
Draw3.883.83-0.04
Molde2.102.41+0.31

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lillestrom and Molde expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Lillestrom
2.41Molde
Total expected goals
4.13
Attack rating (Lillestrom / Molde)
1.05 / 1.86
Defence rating (Lillestrom / Molde)
0.95 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lillestrom vs Molde score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 3.2% 4.7% 3.8% 4.0% 1 2.1% 7.3% 8.0% 6.5% 6.9% 2 2.4% 5.7% 6.9% 5.6% 5.9% 3 1.4% 3.3% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 4+ 0.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1%

Rows: Lillestrom goals. Columns: Molde goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lillestrom vs Molde goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lillestrom vs Molde

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lillestrom34%2.91
Draw23%4.27
Molde42%2.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.56
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.32
No25%4.08
Double chance1X (Lillestrom or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Molde)66%1.52
Handicap -1Molde win by 2+33%2.99
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lillestrom and Molde recent form

Lillestrom 4W 0D 2L
Molde 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lillestrom at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-5
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.70
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 10
  • They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Molde away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-4
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.90
Clean sheets
1 of 10
  • They have won 11 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lillestrom at home only, Molde away only.

Injuries & availability

Lillestrom absences

  • C. Jebara injury
  • E. B. Garnas knee injury

Molde absences

  • E. Hestad leg injury
  • H. Stenevik injury
  • M. Kikkenborg achilles tendon injury
  • S. Diop inactive
  • S. Hansen injury
  • V. Hoff knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lillestrom lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 12 P. Dahlberg
  2. 11 F. Elkær
  3. 28 R. Gabrielsen
  4. 5 S. Foss
  5. 2 L. Ranger
  6. 21 F. Ottosson
  7. 20 Vá
  8. 17 E. Kitolano
  9. 14 G. Nyheim
  10. 22 D. Bassi
  11. 10 T. Lehne Olsen

Bench: S. Hagerup, S. Ottesen, F. Gulbrandsen, G. Nordh, H. Melland, K. Krygård, Y. Paintsil, Y. Ibrahimaj, S. Kristiansen

Molde lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 22 A. Posiadała
  2. 8 M. Løvik
  3. 27 F. Dahl
  4. 19 E. Haugan
  5. 25 M. Linnes
  6. 16 S. Kilen
  7. 23 S. Granaas
  8. 30 D. Daga
  9. 11 C. Zady Sery
  10. 10 E. Breivik
  11. 20 K. Lonebu

Bench: N. Ødegård, P. Lervik, M. Møller Dæhli, O. Spiten-Nysæter, Trent Toure Kone Doherty, S. Kabini, V. Bender, Mads Eikrem Myklebust, B. Risa

Lillestrom vs Molde head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Lillestrom 3 · draws 1 · Molde 5.

LillestromDrawsMolde
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-06Molde0-1LillestromEliteserien
2024-10-06Lillestrom1-2MoldeNM Cupen
2024-08-11Lillestrom1-2MoldeEliteserien
2024-07-07Molde3-0LillestromEliteserien
2023-11-12Molde4-0LillestromEliteserien
2023-04-23Lillestrom2-1MoldeEliteserien
2022-10-16Lillestrom0-1MoldeEliteserien
2022-04-18Molde1-2LillestromEliteserien
2021-12-05Molde3-3LillestromEliteserien

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match