Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 23

Brann vs Viking

· Brann Stadion, Bergen· Referee Tore Hansen

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Viking to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrannDrawViking

Brann vs Viking: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrannDrawViking
Model31%25%44%
Market28%23%49%
Published29%24%48%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.47.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brann vs Viking odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Viking, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.21Now 1.90 -0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brann2.783.35+0.57
Draw3.814.00+0.19
Viking2.211.90-0.31

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brann and Viking expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Brann
1.78Viking
Total expected goals
3.25
Attack rating (Brann / Viking)
1.12 / 1.56
Defence rating (Brann / Viking)
0.84 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brann vs Viking score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 5.9% 6.1% 3.6% 2.4% 1 4.7% 11.2% 9.0% 5.3% 3.5% 2 4.2% 7.5% 6.6% 3.9% 2.6% 3 2.1% 3.7% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Brann goals. Columns: Viking goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brann vs Viking goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brann vs Viking

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brann29%3.50
Draw24%4.22
Viking48%2.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.70
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Brann or draw)52%1.91
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Viking)71%1.40
Handicap -1Viking win by 2+24%4.14
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brann and Viking recent form

Brann 3W 1D 2L
Viking 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brann at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-0-5
Win rate
55%
Goals for / match
1.82
Goals against / match
1.45
Clean sheets
1 of 11
  • They have won 9 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Viking away

Record (W-D-L)
6-2-3
Win rate
55%
Goals for / match
1.45
Goals against / match
0.91
Clean sheets
3 of 11
  • They have won 16 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Brann at home only, Viking away only.

Injuries & availability

Brann absences

  • K. M. Ingason suspended
  • N. Boakye knee injury
  • N. Castro injury
  • N. Wassberg knee injury
  • S. Opsahl foot injury
  • U. Mathisen foot injury

Viking absences

  • A. Baertelsen foot injury
  • M. Roseth knee injury
  • S. Bjorshol knee injury
  • V. Berisha thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Brann lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 S. Nilsen
  2. 20 V. Dragsnes
  3. 21 N. Kasanwirjo
  4. 3 F. Knudsen
  5. 23 T. Pedersen
  6. 19 E. Guðmundsson
  7. 18 J. Sørensen
  8. 16 K. Eriksen
  9. 15 J. Torsvik
  10. 29 N. Holm
  11. 22 S. Magnússon

Bench: M. Dyngeland, K. Kjartansson, B. Finne, J. Soltvedt, N. Jensen Wassberg, J. Lægreid, B. Haugen

Viking lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 A. Østbø
  2. 28 K. Haugen
  3. 25 H. Falchener
  4. 6 G. Stensness
  5. 5 H. Heggheim
  6. 10 Z. Tripić
  7. 7 K. Askildsen
  8. 8 J. Bell
  9. 16 H. Bjørdal
  10. 22 E. Botheim
  11. 20 P. Christiansen

Bench: H. Haugen, R. Postema, N. Fuglestad, Vetle Auklend, S. Kvia-Egeskog, J. Daland, T. Moi, Ľ. Belko, J. Hansen

Brann vs Viking head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Brann 1 · draws 3 · Viking 5.

BrannDrawsViking
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Viking3-2BrannEliteserien
2025-10-05Viking3-0BrannEliteserien
2025-07-13Brann3-1VikingEliteserien
2025-02-14Brann2-2VikingFriendlies Clubs
2024-12-01Brann1-1VikingEliteserien
2024-04-14Viking1-1BrannEliteserien
2023-07-30Brann0-2VikingEliteserien
2023-06-24Viking3-1BrannEliteserien
2021-10-28Brann0-2VikingEliteserien

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match