Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aalesund	Draw	Sarpsborg 08 FF
Model	56%	21%	23%
Market	37%	25%	38%
Published	42%	24%	34%
Edge	+19%	-4%	-15%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.50.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Aalesund below the model: +18.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aalesund, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.49Now 2.47 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Aalesund	2.49	2.47	-0.02
Draw	3.73	3.75	+0.02
Sarpsborg 08 FF	2.46	2.45	-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Aalesund

1.50Sarpsborg 08 FF

Total expected goals: 3.89
Attack rating (Aalesund / Sarpsborg 08 FF): 1.61 / 0.90
Defence rating (Aalesund / Sarpsborg 08 FF): 1.23 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1 4.1% 8.1% 5.5% 2.8% 1.5% 2 5.8% 8.8% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.6% 7.0% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 4+ 4.9% 7.3% 5.5% 2.8% 1.4%

Rows: Aalesund goals. Columns: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 71%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aalesund	42%	2.37
	Draw	24%	4.22
	Sarpsborg 08 FF	34%	2.94
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.34
	Under 2.5	25%	3.93
Both teams to score	Yes	71%	1.40
	No	29%	3.49
Double chance	1X (Aalesund or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Aalesund win by 2+	36%	2.75
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form

Aalesund 4W 0D 2L

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aalesund at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-6-3
Win rate: 18%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 2.36
Clean sheets: 1 of 11

They have won 3 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sarpsborg 08 FF away

Record (W-D-L): 2-4-5
Win rate: 18%
Goals for / match: 1.09
Goals against / match: 1.55
Clean sheets: 3 of 11

They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aalesund at home only, Sarpsborg 08 FF away only.

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Prediction snapshot Aalesund to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Aalesund