Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 23

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

· Color Line Stadion, Ålesund· Referee Svein Tore Sinnes

Full time2 – 4

Alin prediction was Aalesund to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AalesundDrawSarpsborg 08 FF

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAalesundDrawSarpsborg 08 FF
Model56%21%23%
Market39%25%36%
Published43%24%33%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Aalesund below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aalesund, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.49Now 2.40 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aalesund2.492.40-0.09
Draw3.733.75+0.02
Sarpsborg 08 FF2.462.60+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Aalesund
1.51Sarpsborg 08 FF
Total expected goals
3.89
Attack rating (Aalesund / Sarpsborg 08 FF)
1.62 / 0.90
Defence rating (Aalesund / Sarpsborg 08 FF)
1.24 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1 4.1% 8.1% 5.5% 2.8% 1.5% 2 5.8% 8.7% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.6% 7.0% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 4+ 4.8% 7.3% 5.5% 2.8% 1.5%

Rows: Aalesund goals. Columns: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aalesund43%2.31
Draw24%4.18
Sarpsborg 08 FF33%3.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.34
Under 2.525%3.93
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.50
Double chance1X (Aalesund or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF)57%1.77
Handicap -1Aalesund win by 2+36%2.75
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form

Aalesund 4W 0D 2L
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aalesund at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-6-3
Win rate
18%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.36
Clean sheets
1 of 11
  • They have won 4 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sarpsborg 08 FF away

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-5
Win rate
18%
Goals for / match
1.09
Goals against / match
1.55
Clean sheets
3 of 11
  • They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aalesund at home only, Sarpsborg 08 FF away only.

Injuries & availability

Aalesund absences

  • A. Kjelsen injury
  • H. Hammer injury
  • I. Djantou inactive
  • J. Seehusen injury
  • M. Andresen yellow cards
  • P. Aukland injury
  • P. Ngongo surgery
  • S. Haram elbow injury

Sarpsborg 08 FF absences

  • F. Carstensen injury
  • M. Opoku ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Aalesund lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Luca Podlech
  2. 14 U. Charles
  3. 3 Ó. Guðmundsson
  4. 28 D. Mbacke
  5. 22 E. Engqvist
  6. 7 K. Nessø
  7. 15 E. Osenbroch
  8. 18 E. Hagen
  9. 21 M. Christensen
  10. 27 H. M. Reed
  11. 8 I. Skotheim

Bench: P. Ngongo, M. Kristensen, J. Ørsahl, E. Myrlid, S. Kartum, U. Syversen, T. Larsen, T. Leikanger, P. Aukland

Sarpsborg 08 FF lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 87 L. Øy
  2. 20 P. Reinhardsen
  3. 24 S. Rosted
  4. 4 B. Utvik
  5. 32 E. Wichne
  6. 77 O. Skarsem
  7. 17 N. Williams
  8. 8 S. Christiansen
  9. 10 S. Sørli
  10. 33 A. Nibe
  11. 11 D. Karlsbakk

Bench: J. Pryts, M. Lode, L. Høyland, A. Sher, Camil Mmaee Nwameben, C. Niyukuri, Bop Gueye, A. Hiim, V. Halvorsen

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aalesund 2 · draws 1 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 7.

AalesundDrawsSarpsborg 08 FF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-10-22Aalesund3-2Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2023-05-29Sarpsborg 08 FF3-1AalesundEliteserien
2022-09-11Aalesund1-3Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2022-05-22Sarpsborg 08 FF1-2AalesundEliteserien
2020-09-13Aalesund0-1Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2020-08-02Sarpsborg 08 FF4-0AalesundEliteserien
2017-11-19Sarpsborg 08 FF1-0AalesundEliteserien
2017-04-05Aalesund1-3Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2016-08-26Aalesund2-2Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2016-05-12Sarpsborg 08 FF1-0AalesundEliteserien

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match