Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 23

Fredrikstad vs Tromso

· Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad· Referee Ola Hobber Nilsen

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Fredrikstad to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FredrikstadDrawTromso

Fredrikstad vs Tromso: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFredrikstadDrawTromso
Model56%23%21%
Market34%28%39%
Published39%26%34%
Edge+6%-1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Fredrikstad below our published probability: +5.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fredrikstad vs Tromso odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fredrikstad, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.79Now 2.79 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fredrikstad2.792.79-0.00
Draw3.403.40+0.00
Tromso2.342.40+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fredrikstad and Tromso expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05Fredrikstad
1.19Tromso
Total expected goals
3.24
Attack rating (Fredrikstad / Tromso)
1.02 / 1.23
Defence rating (Fredrikstad / Tromso)
0.72 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fredrikstad vs Tromso score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 3.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 1 7.1% 10.5% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 2 8.2% 9.8% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.6% 6.7% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 4.6% 5.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5%

Rows: Fredrikstad goals. Columns: Tromso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fredrikstad vs Tromso goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fredrikstad vs Tromso

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fredrikstad39%2.55
Draw26%3.79
Tromso34%2.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.69
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.60
Double chance1X (Fredrikstad or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Tromso)61%1.65
Handicap -1Fredrikstad win by 2+35%2.90
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fredrikstad and Tromso recent form

Fredrikstad 3W 2D 1L
Tromso 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fredrikstad at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-2-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.30
Goals against / match
1.10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
  • They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tromso away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-4
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.90
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 10
  • They have won 11 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fredrikstad at home only, Tromso away only.

Injuries & availability

Fredrikstad absences

  • F. Ghebreyohannes yellow cards
  • I. Amundsen suspended
  • J. Nysveen injury
  • S. Kvile knee injury

Tromso absences

  • C. Oyvann injury
  • M. Tonnessen injury
  • S. Prestmo injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Fredrikstad lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 77 M. Børsheim
  2. 12 U. Fredriksen
  3. 4 F. Holmé
  4. 28 S. Owusu
  5. 13 S. Sørløkk
  6. 14 M. Nilsson
  7. 6 S. Leach Holm
  8. 16 D. Eid
  9. 18 B. Fiabema
  10. 23 H. Skogvold
  11. 11 L. West

Bench: S. Rafn, B. Thoresen, S. Laghzaoui, J. Hummelvoll-Nuñez, J. Jezierski, L. Owusu, G. Wesseh, J. Torkildsen

Tromso lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 J. Haugaard
  2. 29 A. Warneryd
  3. 30 I. Vådebu
  4. 21 L. Hien
  5. 4 V. Skjærvik
  6. 37 S. Innvær
  7. 70 M. Bjørlo
  8. 11 R. Jenssen
  9. 5 D. Edvardsson
  10. 22 H. Larsen
  11. 10 T. Nyhammer

Bench: L. Olden Larsen, J. Grundt, D. Braut, O. Lauvli, V. Erlien, I. Dahlqvist, V. Osuji, M. Mikkelsen, M. Jatta

Fredrikstad vs Tromso head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Fredrikstad 0 · draws 2 · Tromso 3.

FredrikstadDrawsTromso
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Tromso4-0FredrikstadEliteserien
2025-08-02Tromso0-0FredrikstadEliteserien
2025-06-29Fredrikstad0-1TromsoEliteserien
2024-05-29Tromso3-0FredrikstadEliteserien
2024-05-25Fredrikstad0-0TromsoEliteserien

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match