Fredrikstad vs Tromso: model vs market
| Source | Fredrikstad | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +23% | -4% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fredrikstad below the model: +23.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fredrikstad, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 2.79 | 2.79 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Tromso | 2.34 | 2.34 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fredrikstad and Tromso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Fredrikstad / Tromso)
- 1.02 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Fredrikstad / Tromso)
- 0.72 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fredrikstad goals. Columns: Tromso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fredrikstad vs Tromso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fredrikstad | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Tromso | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.63 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fredrikstad or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Tromso) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fredrikstad win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fredrikstad and Tromso recent form
Fredrikstad
3W 2D 1L
Tromso
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fredrikstad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.30
- Goals against / match
- 1.10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tromso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.90
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 10 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fredrikstad at home only, Tromso away only.
Fredrikstad vs Tromso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fredrikstad 0 · draws 1 · Tromso 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Tromso | 4-0 | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 2025-08-02 | Tromso | 0-0 | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 2025-06-29 | Fredrikstad | 0-1 | Tromso | Eliteserien |
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