Start vs Ham-Kam: model vs market
| Source | Start | Draw | Ham-Kam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | +13% | -6% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Start below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Start vs Ham-Kam odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Start, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 1.90 | 1.91 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.70 | -0.02 |
| Ham-Kam | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Start and Ham-Kam expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Start / Ham-Kam)
- 1.11 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Start / Ham-Kam)
- 1.03 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Start vs Ham-Kam score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Start goals. Columns: Ham-Kam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Start vs Ham-Kam goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Start vs Ham-Kam
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Start | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Ham-Kam | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Start or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Ham-Kam) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Start win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Start and Ham-Kam recent form
Start
4W 0D 2L
Ham-Kam
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Start at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-4
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 4 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ham-Kam away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-7
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 1.09
- Goals against / match
- 2.27
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Start at home only, Ham-Kam away only.
Start vs Ham-Kam head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Start 0 · draws 0 · Ham-Kam 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Ham-Kam | 2-1 | Start | Eliteserien |
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