Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 23

Start vs Ham-Kam

· Sør Arena, Kristiansand· Referee Mohammad Usman Aslam

Full time2 – 4

Alin prediction was Start to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
StartDrawHam-Kam

Start vs Ham-Kam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStartDrawHam-Kam
Model62%19%19%
Market49%25%26%
Published52%24%24%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Start below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Start vs Ham-Kam odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Start, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.90Now 1.91 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Start1.901.91+0.01
Draw3.723.72+0.00
Ham-Kam3.603.58-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Start and Ham-Kam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.56Start
1.39Ham-Kam
Total expected goals
3.95
Attack rating (Start / Ham-Kam)
1.11 / 1.00
Defence rating (Start / Ham-Kam)
1.03 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Start vs Ham-Kam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1 4.2% 7.5% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 2 6.3% 8.8% 6.1% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.4% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1% 4+ 6.3% 8.8% 6.1% 2.8% 1.3%

Rows: Start goals. Columns: Ham-Kam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Start vs Ham-Kam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Start vs Ham-Kam

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Start52%1.92
Draw24%4.23
Ham-Kam24%4.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.06
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.43
No30%3.33
Double chance1X (Start or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Ham-Kam)48%2.09
Handicap -1Start win by 2+42%2.38
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Start and Ham-Kam recent form

Start 4W 0D 2L
Ham-Kam 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Start at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-4
Win rate
30%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 10
  • They have won 4 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ham-Kam away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-7
Win rate
9%
Goals for / match
1.09
Goals against / match
2.27
Clean sheets
1 of 11
  • They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Start at home only, Ham-Kam away only.

Injuries & availability

Start absences

  • F. Lien foot injury
  • F. Manojlovic hand injury
  • J. Husebo foot injury
  • K. Tonnesen leg injury
  • N. Koutsakos injury
  • O. Toure suspended
  • S. Mvoue groin injury

Ham-Kam absences

  • A. Potur heel injury
  • A. Trondsen injury
  • B. Isufi elbow injury
  • M. Johnsgard knee injury
  • M. Ofkir injury
  • M. Sandberg head injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Start lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 26 M. Sjøeng
  2. 12 D. Dashaev
  3. 3 A. Ujkani
  4. 6 J. Norheim
  5. 5 S. Granheim
  6. 29 E. Reitan
  7. 18 M. Ugland
  8. 23 E. Segberg
  9. 10 S. Mvoué
  10. 17 J. Cornelius
  11. 20 H. Lorentzen

Bench: F. Pålerud, J. Meyer, N. Jojić, N. Koutsakos, E. Schulze, M. Nordal, S. Strand-Kolbjørnsen, S. Samuyiwa

Ham-Kam lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 12 M. Sandberg
  2. 5 A. Andresen
  3. 27 João Barros
  4. 23 F. Sjølstad
  5. 2 M. Gjone
  6. 22 S. Nilsen
  7. 26 P. Metcalfe
  8. 10 L. Mettler
  9. 14 L. Mares
  10. 24 D. Al-Saed
  11. 18 Duarte Moreira

Bench: E. Amundsen-Day, H. Opsahl, W. Osnes-Ringen, V. Jónsson, M. Ofkir, S. Østraat, A. Potur, H. Udahl, David Benjamin

Start vs Ham-Kam head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Start 3 · draws 0 · Ham-Kam 4.

StartDrawsHam-Kam
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Ham-Kam2-1StartEliteserien
2023-02-20Start2-1Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
2023-02-20Ham-Kam1-2StartFriendlies Clubs
2021-08-29Ham-Kam3-2Start1. Division
2021-07-05Start1-4Ham-Kam1. Division
2019-09-22Ham-Kam4-0Start1. Division
2019-07-21Start4-1Ham-Kam1. Division

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match