Rosenborg vs Sandefjord: model vs market
| Source | Rosenborg | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| Market | 68% | 19% | 14% |
| Published | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosenborg, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 1.36 | 1.37 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| Sandefjord | 6.62 | 6.84 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.18
- Attack rating (Rosenborg / Sandefjord)
- 1.90 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Rosenborg / Sandefjord)
- 0.88 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rosenborg goals. Columns: Sandefjord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosenborg | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Sandefjord | 15% | 6.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rosenborg or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Sandefjord) | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rosenborg and Sandefjord recent form
Rosenborg
5W 0D 1L
Sandefjord
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rosenborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.45
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Sandefjord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-7
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 1.10
- Goals against / match
- 1.70
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rosenborg at home only, Sandefjord away only.
Injuries & availability
Rosenborg absences
-
E. Slordal
foot injury
- H. Volden injury
-
I. Fossum
thigh injury
-
J. Bakke
injury
Sandefjord absences
-
D. Koswal
knee injury
-
F. Loftesnes-Bjune
thigh injury
-
M. Melchior
knee injury
-
N. Moller
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Rosenborg lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 L. Wahlstedt
- 19 A. Pereira
- 21 T. Nemčík
- 4 M. Ceïde
- 22 J. Svensson
- 6 M. Kjølø
- 10 O. Selnæs
- 17 M. Bomholt
- 11 N. Sahsah
- 35 E. Ceïde
- 18 Amin Chiakha
Bench: T. Solheim, S. Nordli, I. Fossum, D. Islamović, R. Sandberg, J. Mortensen, A. Witry, M. Mampassi, D. Ďuriš
Sandefjord lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 30 E. Hadaya
- 5 G. Højbjerg
- 44 X. Lambrix
- 13 R. Holten
- 2 M. Hellan
- 8 T. Børkeeiet
- 27 J. Dunsby
- 6 S. Mørk
- 10 E. Gigović
- 7 E. Patoulidis
- 24 S. Mathisen
Bench: A. Grønneberg, V. Egeli, F. Pedersen, E. Pettersen, H. Krogelien, Bendik Berntsen, H. B. Skretteberg, J. Vester
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rosenborg 5 · draws 3 · Sandefjord 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Sandefjord | 0-0 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2025-10-29 | Rosenborg | 1-1 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2025-07-06 | Sandefjord | 2-0 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2024-09-29 | Sandefjord | 0-1 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2024-04-01 | Rosenborg | 2-0 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2023-11-12 | Sandefjord | 3-2 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2023-04-23 | Rosenborg | 1-1 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2023-02-19 | Sandefjord | 0-1 | Rosenborg | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-02-19 | Rosenborg | 1-0 | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-08-12 | Sandefjord | 2-5 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Brann vs Viking — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund BK — match page 2026-10-10
- Fredrikstad vs Tromso 2026-10-11
- Start vs Ham-Kam 2026-10-11
- Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08 FF — match page 2026-10-11
- Lillestrom vs Molde 2026-10-11
- KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Rosenborg, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg: odds and pick
- Sandefjord, next: Sandefjord v Lillestrom analysis