Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg preview
In the upcoming match between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg, the 1X2 probabilities show Sarpsborg at 35%, a draw at 25%, and Rosenborg at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 70%, indicating a strong likelihood of an entertaining match.
Sarpsborg's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 draws, while Rosenborg has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.58 and Rosenborg 2.03. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is the confidence grade of C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg: model vs market
| Source | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 23% | 47% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Edge | -7% | -2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rosenborg below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosenborg, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Rosenborg | 2.43 | 2.45 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (Sarpsborg 08 FF / Rosenborg)
- 1.05 / 1.76
- Defence rating (Sarpsborg 08 FF / Rosenborg)
- 0.84 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Columns: Rosenborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Rosenborg | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Rosenborg) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg recent form
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2W 3D 1L
Rosenborg
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosenborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-6
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.70
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF at home only, Rosenborg away only.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 · draws 1 · Rosenborg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Rosenborg | 2-1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| 2025-10-05 | Rosenborg | 2-3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| 2025-07-18 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 2-2 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-17
- Viking v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-17
- Valerenga vs Brann 2026-10-18
- Molde v Start — match page 2026-10-18
- Sandefjord vs Lillestrom — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Tromso vs KFUM Oslo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Sarpsborg 08 FF, previous: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: odds and pick
- Sarpsborg 08 FF, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: odds and pick
- Rosenborg, previous: Rosenborg – Sandefjord, 2026-10-10
- Rosenborg, next: Rosenborg – Ham-Kam, 2026-10-28