Updated

NM Cupen · Round of 32

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam

· Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim· Referee T. Hansen

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Rosenborg to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RosenborgDrawHam-Kam

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRosenborgDrawHam-Kam
Model49%25%25%
Market77%14%9%
Published70%17%13%
Edge-7%+3%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rosenborg, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.22Now 1.19 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rosenborg1.221.19-0.03
Draw6.056.35+0.30
Ham-Kam10.0010.77+0.77

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Rosenborg
1.25Ham-Kam
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (Rosenborg / Ham-Kam)
1.31 / 0.71
Defence rating (Rosenborg / Ham-Kam)
0.54 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 4.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 1 7.5% 11.7% 6.6% 2.8% 1.1% 2 7.7% 9.6% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 4.6% 5.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 3.1% 3.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Rosenborg goals. Columns: Ham-Kam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rosenborg70%1.43
Draw17%5.83
Ham-Kam13%7.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.43
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.54
Double chance1X (Rosenborg or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)83%1.21
X2 (draw or Ham-Kam)30%3.34
Handicap -1Rosenborg win by 2+28%3.57
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rosenborg and Ham-Kam recent form

Rosenborg 5W 1D 0L
Ham-Kam 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ham-Kam away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Rosenborg at home only, Ham-Kam away only.

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rosenborg 7 · draws 1 · Ham-Kam 2.

RosenborgDrawsHam-Kam
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-24Ham-Kam0-3RosenborgEliteserien
2026-09-05Rosenborg4-0Ham-KamEliteserien
2025-09-28Ham-Kam4-0RosenborgEliteserien
2025-07-13Rosenborg2-0Ham-KamEliteserien
2024-11-10Ham-Kam0-2RosenborgEliteserien
2024-04-14Rosenborg1-0Ham-KamEliteserien
2023-08-20Ham-Kam3-0RosenborgEliteserien
2023-06-04Rosenborg4-0Ham-KamEliteserien
2022-08-06Rosenborg2-1Ham-KamEliteserien
2022-05-22Ham-Kam1-1RosenborgEliteserien

Other Round of 32 fixtures

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