Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg preview
In the Eliteserien match between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg, the 1X2 probabilities show Rosenborg at 68%, while Ham-Kam is at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, with an 84% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance for both teams to score.
Ham-Kam's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Rosenborg has 4 wins in their last 6. The expected goals are 1.54 for Ham-Kam compared to 3.09 for Rosenborg. A surprising result could occur if Ham-Kam outperforms their expected goals or if Rosenborg fails to convert their chances.
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg: model vs market
| Source | Ham-Kam | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 15% | 72% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Published | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rosenborg below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosenborg, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ham-Kam | 4.66 | 5.00 | +0.34 |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.20 | +0.08 |
| Rosenborg | 1.65 | 1.60 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ham-Kam and Rosenborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.52
- Attack rating (Ham-Kam / Rosenborg)
- 1.02 / 1.79
- Defence rating (Ham-Kam / Rosenborg)
- 1.27 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ham-Kam goals. Columns: Rosenborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ham-Kam | 17% | 5.75 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Rosenborg | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ham-Kam or draw) | 38% | 2.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Rosenborg) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win by 2+ | 54% | 1.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ham-Kam and Rosenborg recent form
Ham-Kam
2W 0D 4L
Rosenborg
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ham-Kam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-4
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 1.55
- Goals against / match
- 1.91
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosenborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.55
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ham-Kam at home only, Rosenborg away only.
Injuries & availability
Ham-Kam absences
- B. Isufi elbow injury
- M. Johnsgard knee injury
Rosenborg absences
-
E. Slordal
foot injury
- H. Volden injury
-
J. Bakke
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Ham-Kam 2 · draws 1 · Rosenborg 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Rosenborg | 4-0 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 2025-09-28 | Ham-Kam | 4-0 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2025-07-13 | Rosenborg | 2-0 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-10 | Ham-Kam | 0-2 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2024-04-14 | Rosenborg | 1-0 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 2023-08-20 | Ham-Kam | 3-0 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2023-06-04 | Rosenborg | 4-0 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 2022-08-06 | Rosenborg | 2-1 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 2022-05-22 | Ham-Kam | 1-1 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Viking vs Tromso 2026-10-25
- Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo 2026-10-25
- Lillestrom v Brann — match page 2026-10-25
- Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-25
- Start vs Sandefjord — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Molde vs Fredrikstad 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Ham-Kam, previous: Ham-Kam – Bodo/Glimt, 2026-10-17
- Ham-Kam, next: Rosenborg – Ham-Kam, 2026-10-28
- Rosenborg, previous: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg: odds and pick
- Rosenborg, next: Rosenborg – Ham-Kam, 2026-10-28