Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Molde vs Fredrikstad preview

In the upcoming match between Molde and Fredrikstad, the 1X2 probabilities show Molde at 65% and Fredrikstad at 16%. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Molde with 2.99 compared to Fredrikstad's 1.28. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time.

However, recent form indicates that Fredrikstad has won both of their last two encounters against Molde. Additionally, while there is an 80% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score, the historical head-to-head results could challenge Molde's expected dominance in this match.

Molde vs Fredrikstad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Molde	Draw	Fredrikstad
Model	72%	16%	13%
Market	64%	20%	16%
Published	66%	19%	15%
Edge	+2%	-1%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.28.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded 2026-10-24 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Molde vs Fredrikstad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Molde, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.49Now 1.45 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Molde	1.49	1.45	-0.04
Draw	4.66	4.75	+0.09
Fredrikstad	5.50	5.80	+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Molde and Fredrikstad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.99Molde

1.28Fredrikstad

Total expected goals: 4.27
Attack rating (Molde / Fredrikstad): 1.99 / 1.01
Defence rating (Molde / Fredrikstad): 0.92 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Molde vs Fredrikstad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1 3.6% 5.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 2 6.3% 8.0% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 3 6.2% 8.0% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 4+ 9.8% 12.5% 8.0% 3.4% 1.4%

Rows: Molde goals. Columns: Fredrikstad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Molde vs Fredrikstad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 80%

Over 3.5 62%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Molde vs Fredrikstad

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Molde	66%	1.51
	Draw	19%	5.36
	Fredrikstad	15%	6.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	1.25
	Under 2.5	20%	4.97
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.45
	No	31%	3.23
Double chance	1X (Molde or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	81%	1.23
	X2 (draw or Fredrikstad)	34%	2.95
Handicap -1	Molde win by 2+	53%	1.89
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Molde and Fredrikstad recent form

Molde 4W 1D 1L

Fredrikstad 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Molde at home

Record (W-D-L): 8-1-3
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.50
Goals against / match: 1.17
Clean sheets: 3 of 12

They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fredrikstad away

Record (W-D-L): 3-2-7
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 1.17
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 12

They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Molde at home only, Fredrikstad away only.