Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga preview
Bodo/Glimt faces Valerenga with a strong 71% chance to win, while Valerenga has just a 14% chance. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an expected goals tally of 3.40 for Bodo/Glimt compared to 1.63 for Valerenga. With an 88% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, the match could be high-scoring.
However, Bodo/Glimt's recent form shows a mix of results, including one loss in their last six matches. Valerenga's form is less impressive, with three losses in their last five games. This could impact the expected outcome, making it essential to consider these recent performances.
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga: model vs market
| Source | Bodo/Glimt | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 16% | 21% |
| Market | 82% | 10% | 7% |
| Published | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.26 vs 1.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bodo/Glimt, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 1.12 | 1.13 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 9.20 | 8.90 | -0.30 |
| Valerenga | 14.54 | 13.00 | -1.54 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.23
- Attack rating (Bodo/Glimt / Valerenga)
- 1.50 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Bodo/Glimt / Valerenga)
- 1.01 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bodo/Glimt goals. Columns: Valerenga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 83%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bodo/Glimt | 77% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.40 | |
| Valerenga | 11% | 9.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89% | 1.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 11% | 9.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83% | 1.20 |
| No | 17% | 5.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bodo/Glimt or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Valerenga) | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bodo/Glimt win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga recent form
Bodo/Glimt
4W 0D 2L
Valerenga
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bodo/Glimt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-0-1
- Win rate
- 91%
- Goals for / match
- 3.09
- Goals against / match
- 0.64
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 11
- They have won 18 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-6
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 2.36
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt at home only, Valerenga away only.
Injuries & availability
Bodo/Glimt absences
-
A. Mikkelsen
groin injury
-
H. Evjen
knee injury
-
I. Sjong
injury
-
M. Riisnaes
knee injury
Valerenga absences
- E. Rashani injury
- H. Sjatil yellow cards
- K. Finnsson injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Bodo/Glimt 8 · draws 0 · Valerenga 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Valerenga | 1-2 | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien |
| 2025-11-01 | Valerenga | 3-1 | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien |
| 2025-07-26 | Bodo/Glimt | 7-2 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2023-09-28 | Valerenga | 2-4 | Bodo/Glimt | NM Cupen |
| 2023-09-24 | Bodo/Glimt | 4-2 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2023-06-04 | Valerenga | 1-3 | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien |
| 2022-10-16 | Valerenga | 0-6 | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien |
| 2022-06-29 | Valerenga | 0-1 | Bodo/Glimt | NM Cupen |
| 2022-04-18 | Bodo/Glimt | 5-1 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ham-Kam v Rosenborg — match page 2026-10-24
- Viking vs Tromso 2026-10-25
- Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo 2026-10-25
- Lillestrom v Brann — match page 2026-10-25
- Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-25
- Start vs Sandefjord — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Molde vs Fredrikstad 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Bodo/Glimt, previous: Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt prediction
- Bodo/Glimt, next: Sandnes ULF – Bodo/Glimt, 2026-10-28
- Valerenga, previous: Valerenga vs Brann prediction
- Valerenga, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: odds and pick