Lillestrom vs Brann preview
Lillestrom faces Brann with a 40% chance of winning according to our model, while Brann has a 33% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% likelihood. Both teams to score stands at 59%, indicating a strong chance of goals from both sides.
Lillestrom's expected goals are 1.53, slightly higher than Brann's 1.36. However, Lillestrom's recent form shows 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Brann has 3 wins in the same period. This form could influence the outcome, making it possible for Brann to secure a result despite their lower probability.
Lillestrom vs Brann: model vs market
| Source | Lillestrom | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lillestrom vs Brann odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lillestrom, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 2.30 | 2.27 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Brann | 2.66 | 2.73 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lillestrom and Brann expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Lillestrom / Brann)
- 0.97 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Lillestrom / Brann)
- 1.12 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lillestrom vs Brann score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lillestrom goals. Columns: Brann goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lillestrom vs Brann goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lillestrom vs Brann
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Brann | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lillestrom or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Brann) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win by 2+ | 18% | 5.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lillestrom and Brann recent form
Lillestrom
2W 2D 2L
Brann
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lillestrom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-5
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.55
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brann away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Lillestrom at home only, Brann away only.
Injuries & availability
Lillestrom absences
-
C. Jebara
injury
-
E. B. Garnas
knee injury
Brann absences
- J. Sorensen yellow cards
-
K. Kjartansson
knee injury
-
N. Boakye
knee injury
-
S. Opsahl
foot injury
- S. Tronstad inactive
- U. Mathisen foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lillestrom vs Brann head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Lillestrom 1 · draws 2 · Brann 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Brann | 1-2 | Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-09 | Brann | 2-1 | Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 2024-05-12 | Lillestrom | 0-2 | Brann | Eliteserien |
| 2023-10-01 | Lillestrom | 0-2 | Brann | Eliteserien |
| 2023-06-11 | Brann | 2-2 | Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 2023-05-20 | Brann | 2-0 | Lillestrom | NM Cupen |
| 2021-09-11 | Lillestrom | 2-3 | Brann | Eliteserien |
| 2021-06-30 | Brann | 1-1 | Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 2019-09-01 | Lillestrom | 1-3 | Brann | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Ham-Kam v Rosenborg — match page 2026-10-24
- Viking vs Tromso 2026-10-25
- Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo 2026-10-25
- Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-25
- Start vs Sandefjord — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Molde vs Fredrikstad 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Lillestrom, previous: Lillestrom v Real Sociedad analysis
- Lillestrom, next: Lillestrom vs Sogndal prediction
- Brann, previous: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann prediction
- Brann, next: Grorud – Brann, 2026-10-28