Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Kauno Žalgiris and Brann, the 1X2 probabilities show Kauno Žalgiris at 59%, while Brann sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.93 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.98 for Brann.
While there's a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score, these outcomes could be impacted by Brann's recent form, which includes two losses in their last five matches. Kauno Žalgiris, on the other hand, has won four of their last five games, indicating a stronger performance leading into this fixture.
Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann: model vs market
| Source | Kauno Žalgiris | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kauno Žalgiris and Brann expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Kauno Žalgiris / Brann)
- 1.23 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Kauno Žalgiris / Brann)
- 0.76 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Columns: Brann goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Brann | 18% | 5.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kauno Žalgiris or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Brann) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kauno Žalgiris and Brann recent form
Kauno Žalgiris
4W 1D 1L
Brann
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brann away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kauno Žalgiris at home only, Brann away only.
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Before and after this match
- Kauno Žalgiris, previous: Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
- Brann, previous: Valerenga vs Brann prediction
- Brann, next: Grorud – Brann, 2026-10-28