FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Crvena Zvezda at 43%, while FC Copenhagen is at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. FK Crvena Zvezda has an expected goals figure of 1.36 compared to FC Copenhagen's 1.04, suggesting a tighter contest.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. Both teams to score stands at 49%, indicating a near-even chance of both teams finding the net. Additionally, with 43% for Over 2.5 goals, there is potential for a higher-scoring game than predicted. Recent form shows FK Crvena Zvezda unbeaten in their last six matches, while FC Copenhagen has won five of their last six, adding to the unpredictability.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen: model vs market
| Source | FK Crvena Zvezda | Draw | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 1.04.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (FK Crvena Zvezda / FC Copenhagen)
- 1.33 / 1.50
- Defence rating (FK Crvena Zvezda / FC Copenhagen)
- 0.58 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Columns: FC Copenhagen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| FC Copenhagen | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Crvena Zvezda or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Copenhagen) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Crvena Zvezda win by 2+ | 21% | 4.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
5W 1D 0L
FC Copenhagen
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Copenhagen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda at home only, FC Copenhagen away only.
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Before and after this match
- FK Crvena Zvezda, previous: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani: odds and pick
- FC Copenhagen, previous: FC Copenhagen v Aarhus analysis
- FC Copenhagen, next: Aarhus Fremad vs FC Copenhagen prediction