Pafos vs Riga preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Pafos and Riga, the 1X2 probabilities show Pafos at 40%, draw at 29%, and Riga at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 10% chance.
Pafos has an expected goals figure of 1.35, while Riga stands at 1.15. There is a 46% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. The recent form indicates Pafos with a record of W-L-W-D-W-W and Riga at W-W-W-D-D-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Pafos vs Riga: model vs market
| Source | Pafos | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Pafos and Riga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Pafos / Riga)
- 1.09 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Pafos / Riga)
- 0.79 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pafos vs Riga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pafos goals. Columns: Riga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pafos vs Riga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pafos vs Riga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Riga | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pafos or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Riga) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pafos win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pafos and Riga recent form
Pafos
4W 1D 1L
Riga
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pafos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Riga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pafos at home only, Riga away only.
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Before and after this match
- Pafos, previous: Pafos v Apoel Nicosia analysis
- Riga, previous: Riga vs Super Nova: odds and pick