Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia preview
In the match between Pafos and Apoel Nicosia, the 1X2 probabilities show Pafos at 57% to win, compared to Apoel Nicosia's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.00 for Pafos and 1.10 for Apoel Nicosia. With 60% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, there is potential for a high-scoring game.
However, Pafos has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Apoel Nicosia has struggled, recording 3 losses in their last 5 games. This disparity could impact the outcome, as Pafos has won all 4 of their last head-to-head meetings against Apoel Nicosia.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia: model vs market
| Source | Pafos | Draw | Apoel Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 25% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +9% | -4% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Pafos below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pafos, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Apoel Nicosia | 3.76 | 3.76 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pafos and Apoel Nicosia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Pafos / Apoel Nicosia)
- 1.14 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Pafos / Apoel Nicosia)
- 0.82 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pafos goals. Columns: Apoel Nicosia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Apoel Nicosia | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pafos or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Apoel Nicosia) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pafos win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pafos and Apoel Nicosia recent form
Pafos
4W 1D 1L
Apoel Nicosia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pafos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Apoel Nicosia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Pafos at home only, Apoel Nicosia away only.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Pafos 3 · draws 1 · Apoel Nicosia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Pafos | 2-0 | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-04-26 | Apoel Nicosia | 3-3 | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-02-04 | Pafos | 2-0 | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-08-31 | Apoel Nicosia | 0-1 | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Krasava Ypsonas v Karmiotissa — match page 2026-10-17
- Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Omonia Aradippou vs AEL 2026-10-18
- Aris vs AEK Larnaca — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Omonia 29is Maiou vs Anorthosis — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Pafos, previous: Atalanta vs Pafos: odds and pick
- Pafos, next: Pafos vs Riga: odds and pick
- Apoel Nicosia, previous: Apoel Nicosia v Nea Salamis analysis