Aris vs AEK Larnaca preview
In the fixture between Aris and AEK Larnaca, the 1X2 probabilities show AEK Larnaca at 49% and Aris at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. AEK Larnaca's recent form includes four wins in their last six matches, while Aris has two wins in the same period.
The model suggests a 61% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. Aris has expected goals of 1.31, compared to AEK Larnaca’s 1.82. A potential factor that could alter the outcome is Aris's recent struggles, which may impact their performance against a stronger AEK Larnaca side.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca: model vs market
| Source | Aris | Draw | AEK Larnaca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices AEK Larnaca below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AEK Larnaca, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 3.00 | 2.99 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.42 | +0.02 |
| AEK Larnaca | 2.20 | 2.21 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aris and AEK Larnaca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Aris / AEK Larnaca)
- 0.96 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Aris / AEK Larnaca)
- 1.18 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aris goals. Columns: AEK Larnaca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aris vs AEK Larnaca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| AEK Larnaca | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aris or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or AEK Larnaca) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aris and AEK Larnaca recent form
Aris
2W 2D 2L
AEK Larnaca
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aris at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
AEK Larnaca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Aris at home only, AEK Larnaca away only.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Aris 1 · draws 0 · AEK Larnaca 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Aris | 3-4 | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-04-25 | AEK Larnaca | 2-0 | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-01-10 | Aris | 1-0 | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-09-22 | AEK Larnaca | 3-2 | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Krasava Ypsonas v Karmiotissa — match page 2026-10-17
- Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Omonia Aradippou vs AEL 2026-10-18
- Omonia 29is Maiou vs Anorthosis — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pafos v Apoel Nicosia — match page 2026-10-19
- Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Aris, previous: Olympiakos v Aris analysis
- AEK Larnaca, previous: AEK Larnaca – Omonia Aradippou, 2026-10-12