AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AEK Larnaca	Draw	Omonia Aradippou
Model	51%	27%	22%
Market	71%	19%	10%
Published	66%	21%	13%
Edge	-20%	+8%	+12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.01.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AEK Larnaca, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.30Now 1.30 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
AEK Larnaca	1.30	1.30	+0.00
Draw	4.75	4.75	+0.00
Omonia Aradippou	9.25	9.25	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64AEK Larnaca

1.01Omonia Aradippou

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (AEK Larnaca / Omonia Aradippou): 1.27 / 0.90
Defence rating (AEK Larnaca / Omonia Aradippou): 0.93 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 5.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 1 10.5% 12.9% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 2 9.6% 9.6% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 5.2% 5.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 3.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: AEK Larnaca goals. Columns: Omonia Aradippou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AEK Larnaca	66%	1.52
	Draw	21%	4.71
	Omonia Aradippou	13%	7.72
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.03
	Under 2.5	51%	1.97
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.91
	No	48%	2.10
Double chance	1X (AEK Larnaca or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Omonia Aradippou)	34%	2.92
Handicap -1	AEK Larnaca win by 2+	28%	3.57
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer